|
2024
US Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 5, 2024 US
presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better). An
accuracy measure with a positive value indicates that the survey
overstated support for Donald Trump. An accuracy measure with a
negative value indicates that the survey overstated support for Kamala
Harris.
| 2024 US
President |
|
Trump |
Harris |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| AtlasIntel |
49% |
48% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| CNBC |
48% |
46% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| TIPP |
48% |
48% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| NY Post |
49% |
49% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| NBC News |
49% |
49% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| Emerson |
49% |
49% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| NYT/Siena |
48% |
48% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| Rasmussen |
49% |
46% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Wall Street Journal |
49% |
45% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| CBS News |
49% |
50% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| USA Today/Suffolk |
49% |
50% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Yahoo News |
48% |
49% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
46% |
47% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Forbes/Harris X |
49% |
51% |
0.93 |
-0.07* |
| Morning Consult |
47% |
49% |
0.93 |
-0.07* |
| NPR/PBS/Marist |
47% |
51% |
0.89 |
-0.11* |
|
| Actual |
49.80% |
48.33% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures
for the Forbes/Harris X poll (sample size of 3,718), the
Morning Consult poll (sample size of 8,919), and the NPR/PBS/Marist poll
(sample size of 1,297) fall outside the 95% confidence
intervals.
The accuracy measures for the other 13 polls fall
within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.043.
The average absolute accuracy for the 13
polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective
95% confidence
intervals is 0.034.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls in the
2020
presidential election was 0.085. The average absolute accuracy for all
polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037. Four
polls out of sixteen showed a lead for Donald Trump. In theory, 78% of
all polls should have shown a lead for Trump based on the actual vote.
2024 State ratings:
Arizona
Georgia
Iowa
Michigan
New Hampshire
Nevada
Pennsylvania Wisconsin
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