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2020
US Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
Updated: February 3, 2021
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 US
presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 US
President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| The Hill/HarrisX |
49% |
45% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| IBD/TIPP |
50% |
46% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Emerson |
50% |
45% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
52% |
45% |
1.06 |
0.05 |
| JTN/RMG |
51% |
44% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Rasmussen Reports |
48% |
47% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| SurveyUSA |
52% |
44% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Fox News |
52% |
44% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| USA Today/Suffolk |
52% |
44% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| NYT/Siena |
50% |
41% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| Economist/YouGov |
53% |
43% |
1.13 |
0.12* |
| CNBC/Change |
52% |
42% |
1.13 |
0.12* |
| NBC News/WSJ |
52% |
42% |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| USC Dornsife |
54% |
43% |
1.15 |
0.14* |
| Quinnipiac |
50% |
39% |
1.17 |
0.16* |
| CNN |
54% |
42% |
1.18 |
0.16* |
|
| Actual |
51.31% |
46.86% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures
for the Economist/YouGov poll (sample size of 1,363), the
CNBC/Change poll (sample size of 1,880), the USC Dornsife poll (sample size
of 5,423), the Quinnipiac poll (sample size of 1,516), and the CNN poll
(sample size of 886) fall outside the 95% confidence
intervals.
This represents approximately 44% of all final national polls.
The accuracy measures for the other 11 polls fall
within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.085.
The average absolute accuracy for the 11
polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective
95% confidence
intervals is 0.061.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
2020 State ratings:
Florida
Ohio
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
North
Carolina
Arizona
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