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2024 New Hampshire Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 5, 2024 presidential
election in New Hampshire using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better). An
accuracy measure with a positive value indicates that the survey
overstated support for Donald Trump. An accuracy measure with a
negative value indicates that the survey overstated support for Kamala
Harris.
| 2024 President
-New Hampshire |
|
Trump |
Harris |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Emerson |
47% |
50% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| UNH |
46% |
51% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| St Anselm |
46% |
51% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Praecones |
50% |
50% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| UMASS Lowell |
43% |
50% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Dartmouth |
34% |
62% |
0.58 |
-0.54* |
|
| Actual |
47.87% |
50.65% |
|
|
*The accuracy measure
for the Dartmouth poll (sample size of 583) falls outside the 95% confidence
interval. The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.132. The average absolute accuracy for the 5 polls where the accuracy
measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.050.
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