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2024
Iowa Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 5, 2024 presidential
election in Iowa using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better). An
accuracy measure with a positive value indicates that the survey
overstated support for Donald Trump. An accuracy measure with a
negative value indicates that the survey overstated support for Kamala
Harris.
| 2024 President
- Iowa |
|
Trump |
Harris |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Emerson |
54% |
45% |
0.92 |
-0.09 |
| SoCal Strategies |
52% |
44% |
0.90 |
-0.10 |
| Cygnal |
51% |
45% |
0.86 |
-0.15 |
| Insider Advantage |
52% |
46% |
0.86 |
-0.15* |
| DMR/Selzer |
44% |
47% |
0.71 |
-0.34* |
|
| Actual |
55.73% |
42.52% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures
for the Insider Advantage poll (sample size of 800) and the DMR/Selzer
poll (sample size of 808) fall outside the 95% confidence
intervals.The accuracy measures for all 17 polls fall
within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.164. The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls where the accuracy
measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.112.
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