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September 22, 2014

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy


Obama Job Approval Ratings
9/20/14 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 42% 50% 8%
Economy 39% 56% 5%

A total of 42% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 50% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In August, 43% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 52% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 39% of Americans approve and 56% disapprove. In August, 37% approved and 59% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 42% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 50% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 39% of registered voters approve and 56% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted September 17-20 are available at The National Economy.



September 19, 2014

2014 Scotland Idependence Referendum Pollster Accuracy


The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the September 18, 2014 Scotland independence referendum using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).


2014 Scotland Independence Referendum
No Yes Odds
Survation 48% 43% 0.90 -0.10 
Ipsos-MORI 50% 45% 0.90 -0.11 
Panelbase 50% 45% 0.90 -0.11 
ICM 45% 41% 0.89 -0.12 
Opinium 47% 43% 0.88 -0.12 
You-Gov 49% 45% 0.88 -0.13*
TNS-BMRB 39% 38% 0.83 -0.19*
Actual 55.3% 44.7%

There are no differences between pollsters at the 95% confidence interval.

*The accuracy measures for the You-Gov survey and the TNS-BMRB survey fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. The You-Gov survey had a total of 3,237 interviews.

The absolute average accuracy for all seven polls is 0.126.

As a comparison, the absolute average accuracy for polling in the 2008 US presidential election was 0.037 and was 0.055 in the 2012 US presidential election.



September 16, 2014

The New Hampshire Poll

Hassan and Obama Job Approval in New Hampshire


Hassan Job Approval Ratings
9/15/2014 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 48% 27% 25%
Economy 41% 29% 30%


Obama Job Approval Ratings in NH
9/15/2014 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 38% 51% 11%
Economy 40% 50% 10%

Results from the September 2014 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, Maggie Hassan, and Barack Obama. Also included are results for an updated 2014 US Senate ballot between Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown and a 2014 NH Gubernatorial ballot between Maggie Hassan and Walt Havenstein.



September 16, 2014

2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy


Microsoft's Cortana and Nate Silver's Elo are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the 2014 season.

We use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions from both models.

Through the second week of the season, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.234 and the Cortana model has a Brier score of 0.240.


2014 NFL Season
Brier Scores
538 Elo Cortana
Week 1 0.212 0.222
Week 2 0.256 0.258
Season totals 0.234 0.240

In week 2, the Elo model had a Brier score of 0.256, which is worse than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

The Cortana model had a Brier score of 0.258, which is also worse than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

Details are here.



September 8, 2014

South Carolina Gubernatorial Election


Nikki Haley leads Vincent Sheheen 43% to 33%, with 18% for Tom Ervin in a survey of likely voters in South Carolina.

Details of the survey, conducted September 2-4, 2014, can be found here.




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