January 27, 2012

Arizona Republican Presidential Primary

Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney are tied with 32% each in the Arizona Republican presidential primary. Gingrich and Romney are followed by Ron Paul with 12% and Rick Santorum with 10%.

Gingrich leads Romney 33% to 29% among likely Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote in the February 28 primary. Romney leads Gingrich 56% to 24% among those saying they will probably vote.

Gingrich leads with 40% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 23%, Santorum with 13%, and Paul with 11%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 40%, followed by Gingrich with 25%, Paul with 13%, and Santorum with 7%.

Gingrich leads Romney 35% to 30% among men, followed by Paul with 12% and Santorum with 9%. Romney leads Gingrich 34% to 28% among women, followed by Paul with 12% and Santorum with 11%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted January 25-26, 2012 can be found here.

January 25, 2012

Florida Republican Presidential Primary

Mitt Romney has maintained his lead in the Florida Republican presidential primary. Romney leads with 41%, followed by Newt Gingrich with 34%, Rick Santorum with 9%, and Ron Paul with 7%.

In a similar survey conducted January 13-15, 2012, Romney was at 42% and Gingrich was at 25%.

A total of 17% of Republican primary voters say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early voting. Of this group of voters, Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 39%, Paul with 6%, and Santorum with 4%. Among the 83% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters, Romney leads with 39%, followed by Gingrich with 33%, Santorum with 10%, and Paul with 7%.

Gingrich leads with 47% among likely Republican primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party, followed by Romney with 34% and Santorum with 8%. Among likely primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 47%, followed by Gingrich with 22%, Santorum with 10%, and Paul with 9%.

Gingrich and Romney are tied with 37% each among men, followed by Paul with 10% and Santorum with 9%. Romney leads with 45% among women, followed by Gingrich with 31% and Santorum with 9%.

Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted January 23-24, 2012 can be found here.

January 23, 2012

2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary Pollster Ratings

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the January 21, 2012 South Carolina Republican Presidential primary using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

There are no differences in the accuracy measures for the ARG, PPP, Clemson, We Ask America, YouGov/Polimetrix, InsiderAdvantage, and the Rasmussen polls at the 95% confidence interval.

As noted below, however, the accuracy measures for the We Ask America, InsiderAdvantage, and Rasmussen polls fall outside of their respective 95% confidence intervals. The larger sample sizes for these polls (988 for We Ask America, 718 for InsiderAdvantage, and 750 for Rasmussen) did not increase their accuracy measures.

The accuracy measures for the ARG and PPP polls differ from the accuracy measures of the Politico/Tarrance, NBC/Marist, CNN/Time, Monmouth/SUSA, and the IPSOS/Reuters polls at the 95% confidence level.

* The accuracy measures for the We Ask America, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen, Politico/Tarrance, NBC/Marist, CNN/Time, Monmouth/SUSA, and the IPSOS/Reuters polls fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Details can be found here.

The following table indicates the average absolute accuracy for polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and Iowa and South Carolina.

January 21, 2012

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy

A total of 41% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 55% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job according to the latest survey from the American Research Group. In December, 46% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 51% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 35% of Americans approve and 60% disapprove. In December, 42% approved and 54% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 42% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 54% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 35% of registered voters approve and 60% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted January 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

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The margins of error reported for most polls underestimate the actual margins of error for ballot estimates from the same samples. Use the Ballot Lead Calculator to determine if the lead for any survey is statistically significant.