October 30, 2014
The New Hampshire Poll
US Senate and Gubernatorial Ballots
Jeanne Shaheen and Scott Brown and tied at 49% each, with 3% undecided, in the race for US Senate
in New Hampshire. Results from the survey conducted October 27-29 can be found here.
Maggie Hassan leads Walt Havenstein 48% to 46%, with 6% undecided, in the race for governor
of New Hampshire. Results from the survey conducted October 27-29 can be found here.
October 28, 2014
2014 NFL Prediction Accuracy
and Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com Elo
are predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the
tables below use Brier
scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic
predictions from both models.
Brier scores range from 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the probabilities
in the models perfectly match
the outcomes of the games and 1 meaning no matches were made
(so the closer to 0.000, the better
calibration of the model).
If a 50% (0.500) probability were
assigned to each team for each game, the
Brier score would be 0.250.
Through the eighth week of the
season, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.209 and the Cortana
model has a Brier score of
|2014 NFL Season Summary
In week 8 of the season, the Elo
model had a Brier score of 0.217 and the Cortana model had
a Brier score of 0.197.
The 95% confidence intervals for
both models for week 8 include 0.250, making this the seventh
week that both models did no better
or worse than assigning each team a 50% win probability. Week
5 has been the only week where the models performed better
than assigning each team a 50% win
Details for each game are here.
October 21, 2014
Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy
|Obama Job Approval Ratings
A total of 43% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling
job as president and 52% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job.
In September, 42% of Americans approved
of the job Obama was doing and 50% disapproved.
When it comes to Obama's handling
of the economy, 41% of Americans approve and 55% disapprove.
In September, 39% approved and 56% disapproved.
Among Americans registered to
44% approve of the way Obama is handling his job
as president and 51% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 42% of registered
approve and 54% disapprove.
Details from the nationwide survey conducted October
17-20 are available at The National
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