March 23, 2015
Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy
|Obama Job Approval Ratings
A total of 47% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack
Obama is handling
job as president and 49% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job.
In February, 46% of Americans approved
of the job Obama was doing and 49% disapproved.
When it comes to Obama's handling
of the economy, 49% of Americans approve and 47% disapprove.
In February, 45% approved and 50% disapproved.
This is the first time since September
2009 that Obama's job approval for handling the economy has been positive.
Americans registered to
46% approve of the way Obama is handling his job
as president and 50% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 49% of registered
approve and 47% disapprove.
Details from the nationwide survey conducted March
17-20 are available at The National
March 19, 2015
2015 NCAA Men's Division
I Basketball Tournament
is back with predictions
for the 2015 NCAA Men's Division I basketball tournament (see
the accuracy of Nate's model for the 2014 NFL season here).
provides the odds of each team advancing in the tournament
and, unlike most bracket competitions, is updated after each
The table below uses Brier
scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic
predictions in Nate's model.
Brier scores range from 0.0 to 1.0, with 0.0 meaning the probabilities
in the model perfectly match
the outcomes of the games and 1.0 meaning no matches were made
(so the closer to 0.0, the better the model). If a 50% probability were assigned to each team
for each game, the
Brier score would be 0.25.
Just as last
year, Nate's model failed in
the first round of the tournament.
The Brier score for the four games of 0.2640 exceeds
what the score would have been by assigning each team a 50%
probability of winning.
|2015 NCAA Men's Division I
Round 1 First Four
|Brier score for 4 games
Although the model failed in the first round of games, the format of the second
where higher-ranked teams play lower-ranked teams, should lead to an improved Brier
it did last year. The model, however, will continue to miss the upsets, which, obviously,
in a single-elimination tournament.
As the results from the first round demonstrate, Nate's model does not solve the problem
of the unrepeatable single case (100,000 game simulations do not constitute the infinite long
Accuracy results for each round will be posted here.
February 17, 2015
2014 NFL Prediction
Accuracy - Worse Than Guessing
Updated results, including reliability tables, assessing
the accuracy of Microsoft's Cortana
and Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com Elo
predictions for the 2014 NFL season are available here.
Both models performed worse than guessing
in the second week of the season, invalidating the models.
While the Elo model finished the season with
a slightly better Brier score, the Cortana model's favorites
won more games and the Cortana
model was less prone than the Elo model to over and under-forecasting
and therefore less prone to bias.
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