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October 21, 2016

National Presidential Ballot


National Presidential Ballot
  Clinton Trump Other** Undecided
Likely voters 49% 42% 5% 4%
Registered voters:
September 17-20 47% 44% 5% 4%
August 17-20 47% 42% 6% 5%
July 17-20 43% 42% 6% 9%
June 17-20 50% 41% 3% 6%
May 17-20 46% 46% 2% 6%
**Johnson 4%, Stein 1%


Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 49% to 42% in a national survey of 1,006 likely voters. In September, Clinton was leading Trump 47% to 44% among registered voters.

Details of the survey conducted October 17-20, 2016 are here.



September 21, 2016

Obama Job Approvals and the National Economy


Obama Job Approval Ratings
10/20/16 Approve Disapprove Undecided
Overall 52% 43% 5%
Economy 50% 45% 5%


A total of 52% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 43% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In September, 48% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 46% disapproved.

When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 50% of Americans approve and 45% disapprove. In September, 47% approved and 48% disapproved.

Among Americans registered to vote, 52% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 43% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 50% of registered voters approve and 45% disapprove.

Details from the nationwide survey conducted October 17-20 are available at The National Economy.



October 18, 2016

2016 NFL Prediction Accuracy


Microsoft's Cortana and Nate Silver's Elo are again predicting the outcomes of NFL games each week during the 2016 season. (See the accuracy results for the two models for the 2015 NFL season here.)

The tables below use Brier scores to determine the accuracy of the probabilistic predictions from both models.

Brier scores range from 0 to 1, with 0 meaning the probabilities in the models perfectly match the outcomes of the games and 1 meaning no matches were made (so the closer to 0.000, the better calibration of the model).

If a 50% (0.500) probability were assigned to each team for each game, the Brier score would be 0.250.

After the sixth week of the season, the Elo model has a Brier score of 0.235 and the Cortana model has a Brier score of 0.242.


Brier Scores
2016 NFL Season Summary 538 Elo Cortana
Week 1 0.210 0.230
Week 2 0.229 0.247
Week 3 0.213 0.247
Week 4 0.264 0.271
Week 5 0.260 0.235
Week 6 0.242 0.219
Season totals 0.235 0.242


The 95% confidence intervals for both models include 0.250, making both models no better or worse than assigning each team a 50% win probability.

Both models were invalidated in week 4 of the season.

The average win probabilities among winning teams are 55% for the Elo model and 53% for the Cortana model.

Details for each game are here.



September 26, 2016

The New Hampshire Poll


Results from the September 2016 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, Maggie Hassan, and Barack Obama.

The following New Hampshire ballot match-ups are also available from the survey: US President, US Senate, and NH Governor.



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