American Research Group, Inc.

 

2024 Michigan Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 5, 2024 presidential election in Michigan using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better). An accuracy measure with a positive value indicates that the survey overstated support for Donald Trump. An accuracy measure with a negative value indicates that the survey overstated support for Kamala Harris.

 

2024 President - Michigan
Trump Harris Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Trafalgar 48% 47% 0.99 -0.01 
MIRS 50% 48% 1.01 0.01 
AtlasIntel 50% 48% 1.01 0.01 
Insider Advantage 47% 47% 0.97 -0.03 
NYT/Siena 47% 47% 0.97 -0.03 
Redfield & Wilton 47% 47% 0.97 -0.03 
Echelon Insights 48% 48% 0.97 -0.03 
Fox News 49% 49% 0.97 -0.03 
CNN 47% 47% 0.97 -0.03 
Suffolk 47% 47% 0.97 -0.03 
Morning Consult 48% 49% 0.95 -0.05 
Washington Post 46% 47% 0.95 -0.05 
Aaru** 49.29% 50.71% 0.94 -0.06 
Emerson 48% 50% 0.93 -0.07 
Marist 48% 50% 0.93 -0.07 
FAU/Mainstreet 47% 49% 0.93 -0.07 
Research Co 47% 49% 0.93 -0.07 
The Times UK 45% 48% 0.91 -0.09 
Glengariff 44% 47% 0.91 -0.09 
Quinnipiac 46% 50% 0.89 -0.11 
UMASS Lowell 45% 49% 0.89 -0.11 
Susquehanna 47% 52% 0.88 -0.13 
Actual 49.73% 48.31%


**Aaru created AI agents to act as voters to make predictions in seven states.

The accuracy measures for all 22 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.055.

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