American Research Group, Inc.

 

2012 US Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the November 6, 2012 US Presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2012 Presidential Election
Obama Romney Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Pew 48% 45% 0.99 -0.01 
Democracy Corps 49% 45% 1.01 0.01 
High Point University 46% 43% 0.99 -0.01 
ABC/Post 50% 47% 0.98 -0.02 
Angus-Reid 51% 48% 0.98 -0.02 
United Technologies/
National Journal
50% 45% 1.03 0.03 
YouGov 49% 47% 0.96 -0.04*
Ipsos/Reuters 48% 46% 0.96 -0.04 
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP 50% 49% 0.96 -0.04 
PPP 50% 48% 0.96 -0.04 
YouGov/Economist 49% 47% 0.96 -0.04 
UPI/CVOTER 49% 48% 0.94 -0.06 
NBC/WSJ 48% 47% 0.94 -0.06 
Purple Strategies 47% 46% 0.94 -0.06 
IBD/TIPP 50% 49% 0.94 -0.06 
ARG 49% 49% 0.92 -0.08 
Politico/GWU/
Battelground
47% 47% 0.92 -0.08 
JZ Analytics/
Newsmax
47% 47% 0.92 -0.08 
Gravis Marketing 48% 48% 0.92 -0.08 
CNN 49% 49% 0.92 -0.08 
Washington Times/
JZ Analytics
49% 49% 0.92 -0.08 
Fox 46% 46% 0.92 -0.08 
Monmouth 48% 48% 0.92 -0.08 
Rasmussen 48% 49% 0.91 -0.10*
Gallup 48% 49% 0.91 -0.10*
Actual 51.06% 47.21%

 

The accuracy measures for 22 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

*The accuracy measures for the YouGov poll (sample size of 36,472), the Rasmussen poll (sample size of 1,500), and the Gallup poll (sample size of 2,551) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

The absolute average accuracy for all polls in 2012 is 0.055. The absolute average accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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