|
2024
Arizona Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 5, 2024 presidential
election in Arizona using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better). An
accuracy measure with a positive value indicates that the survey
overstated support for Donald Trump. An accuracy measure with a
negative value indicates that the survey overstated support for Kamala
Harris.
| 2024 President
- Arizona |
|
Trump |
Harris |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| AtlasIntel |
52% |
46% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| NYT/Siena |
49% |
45% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| Insider Advantage |
49% |
46% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Washington Post |
49% |
46% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Patriot Polling |
51% |
48% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Aaru** |
51.41% |
48.59% |
0.95 |
-0.06 |
| Data Orbital |
50% |
42% |
1.07 |
0.06 |
| Trafalgar |
49% |
47% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| Emerson |
50% |
48% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| ActiVote |
51% |
49% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| High Ground |
47% |
46% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Redfield &
Wilton |
48% |
47% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Noble Predictive Insights |
48% |
47% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Victory Insights |
49% |
48% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| FocalData |
49% |
48% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Marist |
50% |
49% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| SoCal Strategies |
50% |
49% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Morning Consult |
48% |
48% |
0.89 |
-0.11 |
| The Times UK |
48% |
48% |
0.89 |
-0.11
|
| CNN |
47% |
48% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| RABA Research |
43% |
45% |
0.85 |
-0.16
|
|
| Actual |
52.22% |
46.69% |
|
|
**Aaru created AI agents to act as voters to make predictions in seven states.
The accuracy measures for all 21 polls
fall
within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.080.
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