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2020 Wisconsin Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Wisconsin presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Wisconsin President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Trafalgar |
48% |
47% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Susquehanna |
49% |
46% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Fox News |
49% |
44% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| Marquette |
48% |
43% |
1.10 |
0.10 |
| CNBC/Change Research |
53% |
45% |
1.16 |
0.15 |
| Emerson |
53% |
45% |
1.16 |
0.15* |
| CNN |
52% |
44% |
1.17 |
1.15* |
| U of Wisconsin |
53% |
44% |
1.19 |
0.17* |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
53% |
43% |
1.22 |
0.20* |
| NYT/Siena |
52% |
41% |
1.25 |
0.22* |
| ABC/Washington Post |
57% |
40% |
1.41 |
0.34* |
|
| Actual |
49.45% |
48.82% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for the Emerson poll (sample size of 751),
the CNN poll (sample size
of 873), the University of Wisconsin poll (sample size of 647), the
Reuters/Ipsos poll (sample size of 696), the New York Times/Siena poll (sample
size of 1,253), and the ABC News/Washington Post poll (sample size of 789) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 55% of all final polls in Wisconsin.
The accuracy measures for the other 5 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.149. The average absolute accuracy for the 5 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.080. In
2016 in Wisconsin, the average absolute accuracy for 10 final polls
was 0.158. Of the 10 final polls, 6 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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