American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Wisconsin Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Wisconsin presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Wisconsin President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Trafalgar 48% 47% 1.01 0.01 
Susquehanna 49% 46% 1.05 0.05 
Marquette 48% 43% 1.10 0.10 
Fox News 49% 44% 1.10 0.10 
CNBC/Change Research 53% 45% 1.16 0.15 
Emerson 53% 45% 1.16 0.15*
CNN 52% 44% 1.17 1.15*
U of Wisconsin 53% 44% 1.19 0.17*
Reuters/Ipsos 53% 43% 1.22 0.19*
NYT/Siena 52% 41% 1.25 0.22*
ABC/Washington Post 57% 40% 1.40 0.34*
Actual 49.6% 48.9%

 

*The accuracy measures for the Emerson poll (sample size of 751), the CNN poll (sample size of 873), the University of Wisconsin poll (sample size of 647), the Reuters/Ipsos poll (sample size of 696), the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 1,253), and the ABC News/Washington Post poll (sample size of 789) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 55% of all final polls in Wisconsin. 

The accuracy measures for the other 5 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.148.

The average absolute accuracy for the 5 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.079.

In 2016 in Wisconsin, the average absolute accuracy for 10 final polls was 0.158. Of the 10 final polls, 6 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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