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2020 North Carolina
Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 North Carolina
presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 North
Carolina President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Rasmussen Reports |
47% |
48% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Trafalgar |
47% |
49% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Emerson |
47% |
47% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| WRAL-TV/Survey USA |
48% |
48% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| UMass Lowell |
48% |
48% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
49% |
48% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| The Hill/HarrisX |
49% |
48% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Civitas/Harper |
47% |
46% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| ABC/Washington Post |
49% |
48% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Insider Advantage |
44% |
48% |
0.94 |
-0.06 |
| CNBC/Change Research |
49% |
47% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| East Carolina
University |
49% |
47% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| Susquehanna |
48% |
46% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| NYT/Siena |
48% |
45% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| CBS/YouGov |
51% |
47% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| PPP |
50% |
46% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| Monmouth |
50% |
46% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| NBC News /Marist |
52% |
46% |
1.16 |
0.15* |
| CNN |
51% |
45% |
1.17 |
0.15* |
|
| Actual |
48.59% |
49.93% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for the NBC News/Marist poll
(sample size of 800),
and the CNN poll (sample size of 901) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 11% of all final polls in North
Carolina.
The accuracy measures for the other 17 polls fall
within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.068.
The average absolute accuracy for the 17
polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective
95% confidence
intervals is 0.058.
In
2016 in North Carolina, the average absolute accuracy for 14
final polls
was 0.108. Of the 14 final polls, 11 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals.
As a reference: The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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