American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 North Carolina Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 North Carolina presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 North Carolina President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Rasmussen Reports 47% 48% 1.01 0.01 
Trafalgar 47% 49% 0.99 -0.01 
Emerson 47% 47% 1.03 0.03 
WRAL-TV/Survey USA 48% 48% 1.03 0.03 
UMass Lowell 48% 48% 1.03 0.03 
Reuters/Ipsos 49% 48% 1.05 0.05 
The Hill/HarrisX 49% 48% 1.05 0.05 
Civitas/Harper 47% 46% 1.05 0.05 
ABC/Washington Post 49% 48% 1.05 0.05 
Insider Advantage 44% 48% 0.94 -0.06 
CNBC/Change Research 49% 47% 1.07 0.07 
East Carolina University 49% 47% 1.07 0.07 
Susquehanna 48% 46% 1.07 0.07 
NYT/Siena 48% 45% 1.10 0.09 
CBS/YouGov 51% 47% 1.12 0.11 
PPP 50% 46% 1.12 0.11 
Monmouth 50% 46% 1.12 0.11 
NBC News /Marist 52% 46% 1.16 0.15*
CNN 51% 45% 1.17 0.15*
Actual 48.7% 50.1%

 

*The accuracy measures for the NBC News/Marist poll (sample size of 800), and the CNN poll (sample size of 901) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 11% of all final polls in North Carolina. 

The accuracy measures for the other 17 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.069.

The average absolute accuracy for the 17 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.059.

In 2016 in North Carolina, the average absolute accuracy for 14 final polls was 0.108. Of the 14 final polls, 11 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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