American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Ohio Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Ohio presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Ohio President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Trafalgar 44% 49% 1.06 0.06 
Rasmussen Reports 45% 49% 1.08 0.08 
Fox News 44% 48% 1.11 0.10 
Emerson 49% 48% 1.21 0.19*
NYT/Siena 45% 44% 1.21 0.19*
Quinnipiac 47% 43% 1.29 0.26*
Actual 45.2% 53.4%

 

*The accuracy measures for the Emerson poll (sample size of 656), the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 661), and the Quinnipiac poll (sample size of 1,440) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents 50% of all final polls in Ohio. 

The accuracy measures for the other 3 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.146.

The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.081.

In 2016 in Ohio, the average absolute accuracy for 14 final polls was 0.167. Of the 14 final polls, only 5 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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