|
2020 Ohio Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Ohio presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Ohio President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Trafalgar |
44% |
49% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Rasmussen Reports |
45% |
49% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Fox News |
44% |
48% |
1.10 |
0.10 |
| Emerson |
49% |
48% |
1.20 |
0.18* |
| NYT/Siena |
45% |
44% |
1.21 |
0.19* |
| Quinnipiac |
47% |
43% |
1.29 |
0.25* |
|
| Actual |
45.24% |
53.27% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for the Emerson poll (sample size of 656),
the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size
of 661), and the Quinnipiac poll (sample
size of 1,440) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents 50% of all final polls in Ohio.
The accuracy measures for the other 3 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.143. The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.078. In 2016 in Ohio, the average absolute accuracy for 14 final polls
was 0.167. Of the 14 final polls, only 5 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
|
