American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Arizona Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Arizona presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Arizona President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
NBC News/Marist 48% 48% 0.99 -0.01 
Emrerson 48% 48% 0.99 -0.01 
Susquehanna 46% 47% 0.97 -0.03 
Reuters/Ipsos 49% 47% 1.04 0.04 
CNBC/Change Research 50% 47% 1.06 0.06 
OH Predictive Insights 49% 46% 1.06 0.06 
CBS/YouGov 50% 47% 1.06 0.06 
Trafalgar 46% 49% 0.93 -0.07 
CNN 50% 46% 1.08 0.08 
Rasmussen Reports 45% 49% 0.91 -0.09 
NYT/Siena 49% 43% 1.13 0.12*
Monmouth 51% 44% 1.15 0.14 
Actual 49.5% 49.0%

*The accuracy measure for the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 1,252) falls outside the 95% confidence interval. This represents approximately 8% of all final polls in Arizona. 

The accuracy measures for the other 11 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.062.

The average absolute accuracy for the 11 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.057.

In 2016 in Arizona, the average absolute accuracy for 12 final polls was 0.052. Of the 12 final polls, 10 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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