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2020 Arizona
Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Arizona
presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Arizona
President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| NBC News/Marist |
48% |
48% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Emerson |
48% |
48% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Susquehanna |
46% |
47% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
49% |
47% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| CNBC/Change Research |
50% |
47% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| OH Predictive
Insights |
49% |
46% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| CBS/YouGov |
50% |
47% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Trafalgar |
46% |
49% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| CNN |
50% |
46% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Rasmussen Reports |
45% |
49% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| NYT/Siena |
49% |
43% |
1.13 |
0.12* |
| Monmouth |
51% |
44% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
|
| Actual |
49.36% |
49.06% |
|
|
*The accuracy measure for the New York
Times/Siena poll (sample size of 1,252) falls outside the
95% confidence interval.
This represents approximately 8% of all final polls in Arizona.
The accuracy measures for the other 11
polls fall
within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all
polls is 0.062. The average absolute accuracy for the 11 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.057.
In
2016 in Arizona, the average absolute accuracy for 12
final polls
was 0.052. Of the 12 final polls, 10 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals.
As a reference: The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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