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2020 Iowa Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Iowa presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Iowa President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Des Moines Register |
41% |
48% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Insider Advantage |
46% |
48% |
1.13 |
0.13 |
| Emerson |
46% |
47% |
1.16 |
0.15 |
| Quinnipac |
46% |
47% |
1.16 |
0.15* |
| CBS News/YouGov |
49% |
49% |
1.18 |
0.17* |
| PPP |
49% |
48% |
1.21 |
0.19* |
| NYT/Siena |
46% |
43% |
1.27 |
0.24* |
| Monmouth |
50% |
47% |
1.26 |
0.23* |
| WHO-TV13 |
50% |
46% |
1.29 |
0.25* |
|
| Actual |
44.89% |
53.09% |
|
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*The accuracy measures for the Quinnipac poll (sample size of
1,225),
the CBS News/YouGov poll (sample size
of 1,035), the PPP poll (sample size of 871), the New York
Times/Siena poll (sample size of 753), the Monmouth poll (sample size
of 501), and the WHO-TV13 poll (sample size of 693) fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 67% of all final polls in Iowa.
The accuracy measures for the other 3 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.167. The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.094. In
2016 in Iowa, the average absolute accuracy for 8 final polls
was 0.134. Of the 8 final polls, 5 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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