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2020 Florida Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Florida presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Florida President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Trafalgar |
47% |
49% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| ABC/Washington Post |
48% |
50% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Fox 35/Insider Advantage |
47% |
48% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Susquehanna |
46% |
47% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Rasmussen Reports |
48% |
47% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| St. Pete Polls |
49% |
48% |
1.09 |
0.09* |
| Florida Atlantic |
50% |
48% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| CBS/YouGov |
50% |
48% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| CNBC/Change Research |
51% |
48% |
1.14 |
0.13 |
| NYT/Siena |
47% |
44% |
1.14 |
0.13* |
| The Hill/HarrisX |
50% |
47% |
1.14 |
0.13* |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
50% |
46% |
1.16 |
0.15 |
| NBC/Marist |
51% |
47% |
1.16 |
0.15* |
| Quinnipiac |
47% |
42% |
1.20 |
0.18* |
| Emerson |
51% |
45% |
1.21 |
0.19* |
| Mommouth |
51% |
45% |
1.21 |
0.19* |
|
| Actual |
47.86% |
51.22% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for the St. Pete Polls poll (sample size of 2,758),
the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size
of 1,451), the Hill/HarrisX poll (sample size of 1,148), the
NBC News/Marist poll (sample size of 743), the Quinnipiac poll (sample
size of 1,657), the Emerson poll (sample size of 849), and the Monmouth
poll (sample size of 500) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 44% of all final polls in Florida.
The accuracy measures for the other 9 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.113 The average absolute accuracy for the 9 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.081. In
2016 in Florida, the average absolute accuracy for 20 final polls
was 0.079. Of the 20 final polls, 16 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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