American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Florida Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Florida presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Florida President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Trafalgar 47% 49% 1.03 0.03 
ABC/Washington Post 48% 50% 1.03 0.03 
Fox 35/Insider Advantage 47% 48% 1.05 0.05 
Susquehanna 46% 47% 1.05 0.05 
Rasmussen Reports 48% 47% 1.09 0.09 
St. Pete Polls 49% 48% 1.09 0.09*
Florida Atlantic 50% 48% 1.12 1.11 
CBS/YouGov 50% 48% 1.12 0.11 
CNBC/Change Research 51% 48% 1.14 0.13 
NYT/Siena 47% 44% 1.14 0.13*
The Hill/HarrisX 50% 47% 1.14 0.13*
Reuters/Ipsos 50% 46% 1.16 0.15 
NBC/Marist 51% 47% 1.16 0.15*
Quinnipiac 47% 42% 1.20 0.18*
Emerson 51% 45% 1.21 0.19*
Mommouth 51% 45% 1.21 0.19*
Actual 47.8% 51.2%

 

*The accuracy measures for the St. Pete Polls poll (sample size of 2,758), the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 1,451), the Hill/HarrisX poll (sample size of 1,148), the NBC News/Marist poll (sample size of 743), the Quinnipiac poll (sample size of 1,657), the Emerson poll (sample size of 849), and the Monmouth poll (sample size of 500) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 44% of all final polls in Florida. 

The accuracy measures for the other 9 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.113.

The average absolute accuracy for the 9 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.080.

In 2016 in Florida, the average absolute accuracy for 20 final polls was 0.079. Of the 20 final polls, 16 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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