American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Michigan Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Michigan presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Michigan President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Insider Advantage 49% 47% 0.99 -0.01 
CNBC/Change 51% 44% 1.10 0.09 
Emerson 52% 45% 1.10 0.09 
Mitchell Research 52% 45% 1.10 0.09 
ABC/Washington Post 51% 44% 1.10 0.09 
EPIC/MRA 48% 41% 1.11 0.10 
Detroit News/WDIV 49% 42% 1.10 0.10 
Trafalgar 46% 48% 0.91 -0.10 
NYT/Siena 49% 41% 1.13 0.12 
Reuters/Ipsos 52% 42% 1.17 0.16 
U Wisconsin/YouGov 52% 42% 1.17 0.16 
The Hill/HarrisX 54% 43% 1.19 0.17*
CNN 53% 41% 1.22 0.20*
Fox News 52% 40% 1.23 0.21*
Actual 50.6% 47.9%

 

*The accuracy measures for the Hill/HarrisX poll (sample size of 1,289), the CNN poll (sample size of 907), and the Fox News poll (sample size of 1,032) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 21% of all final polls in Michigan. 

The accuracy measures for the other 11 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.122.

The average absolute accuracy for the 11 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.102.

In 2016 in Michigan, the average absolute accuracy for 7 final polls was 0.159. Of the 7 final polls, 5 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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