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2020 Michigan Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Michigan presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Michigan President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Insider Advantage |
49% |
47% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Mitchell Research |
52% |
45% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Emerson |
52% |
45% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| CNBC/Change |
51% |
44% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| ABC/Washington Post |
51% |
44% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| EPIC/MRA |
48% |
41% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Detroit News/WDIV |
49% |
42% |
1.10 |
0.10 |
| Trafalgar |
46% |
48% |
0.91 |
-0.10 |
| NYT/Siena |
49% |
41% |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
52% |
42% |
1.17 |
0.16 |
| U Wisconsin/YouGov |
52% |
42% |
1.17 |
0.16 |
| The Hill/HarrisX |
54% |
43% |
1.19 |
0.17* |
| CNN |
53% |
41% |
1.22 |
0.20* |
| Fox News |
52% |
40% |
1.23 |
0.21* |
|
| Actual |
50.62% |
47.84% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for the Hill/HarrisX poll (sample size of 1,289),
the CNN poll (sample size
of 907), and the Fox News poll (sample size of 1,032) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 21% of all final polls in Michigan.
The accuracy measures for the other 11 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.120. The average absolute accuracy for the 11 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.101. In
2016 in Michigan, the average absolute accuracy for 7 final polls
was 0.159. Of the 7 final polls, 5 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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