|
2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the January 15, 2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2024 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus |
|
Trump |
DeSantis |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Trafalgar |
52% |
19% |
1.14 |
0.13 |
| Insider Advantage |
51% |
17% |
1.25 |
0.22 |
| NBC News/DMR |
48% |
16% |
1.25 |
0.22 |
| Emerson |
55% |
15% |
1.52 |
0.42* |
| Iowa State/Civiqs |
55% |
14% |
1.63 |
0.49* |
| Morning Consult |
58% |
14% |
1.72 |
0.54* |
| Suffolk |
54% |
13% |
1.73 |
0.55* |
|
| Actual |
51.0% |
21.2% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures
for the Emerson poll (sample size of 532), the Iowa State/Civiqs
poll (sample size of 433), the Morning Consult poll (sample size of
353), and the Suffolk poll (sample size
of 500) fall outside the 95% confidence
intervals. None of the polls had DeSantis in second place. The
Traflagar, Insider Advantage, and the Iowa State/Civiqs polls had
DeSantis and Haley tied. The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.37. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus was 0.31.
The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls where the accuracy
measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.19. The
average absolute accuracy for the 4 polls (out of 13 polls) in the 2016 Iowa
Republican Presidential Caucus where the accuracy measures were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals was 0.18. For a comparison, the average absolute accuracy for all
polls in the
2020
presidential election was 0.085, the average absolute accuracy for all
polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070, the average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055, and the average
absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
|
