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2010
Pollsters and Aggregators
Ratings Summary The following table
lists the average
accuracy of pollsters and polling aggregators based on 2010
Primary, Senate,
Governor, and
House races using the measure of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. A minimum of nine polls/races
were required to be included in the table.
|
Average
Accuracy |
|
| YouGov/Polimetrix |
0.072 |
| SurveyUSA |
0.077 |
| RealClearPolitics.com |
0.084 |
| FiveThirtyEight.com |
0.098 |
| Pollster.com |
0.100 |
| Public Policy Polling |
0.101 |
| Fox News |
0.105 |
| Quinnipiac |
0.107 |
| CNN/Time |
0.120 |
| The Hill |
0.123 |
| Rasmussen |
0.143 |
The only difference at the 95% confidence interval is between the average
accuracy for YouGov/Polimetrix and The Hill. The trend estimates of Pollster.com and the
prediction models of FiveThirtyEight.com did not out-perform
the simple averages used by RealClearPolitics.com
and all three polling aggregators did not out-perform pollsters
conducting nine or more polls. YouGov/Polimetrix did not just lead in average
polling accuracy. Its prediction
of Republican gains in the House out-performed the FiveThirtyEight.com
House prediction
model.
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