American Research Group, Inc.

 

2010 US House Pollster Ratings

Here are the pollster scorecard results for 31 US House races polled for The Hill using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

The first row for each district identifies the district and candidates. The second row contains the sample size, the poll results for each candidate, the odds ratio, and the accuracy measure. The third row lists the actual results.

Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
MS-1 Childer Nunnelee
603 39 44 1.19 0.17
Actual 41 55
AZ-5 Mitchell Schweikert
408 42 45 1.13 0.12
Actual 43 52
WI-8 Kagen Ribble
415 44 45 1.20 0.18
Actual 45 55
IL-14 Foster Hultgren
406 42 43 1.11 0.10
Actual 45 51
IL-17 Hare Schilling
417 38 45 1.04 0.04
Actual 43 53
PA-8 Murphy Fitzpatrick
398 46 43 1.26 0.23
Actual 46 54
PA-10 Carney Marino
406 41 41 1.22 0.20
Actual 45 55
NH-1 Shea-Porter Guinta
407 42 47 1.12 0.12
Actual 43 54
NY-19 Hall Hayworth
416 43 43 1.13 0.12
Actual 47 53
NY-24 Arcuri Hanna
400 47 37 1.43 0.36
Actual 47 53
TN-8 Herron Fincher
416 37 47 1.19 0.17
Actual 39 59
WA-3 Heck Herrera
400 40 42 1.07 0.07
Actual 47 53
AR-1 Causey Crawford
409 34 46 0.89 -0.11
Actual 43 52
WI-7 Lassa Duffy
400 35 44 0.94 -0.06
Actual 44 52
IL-10 Seals Dold
405 49 37 1.38 0.32
Actual 49 51
HI-1 Hanabusa Djou
406 41 45 0.81 -0.21
Actual 53 47
PA-7 Lentz Meehan
405 39 40 1.22 0.20
Actual 44 55
NH-2 Kuster Bass
407 42 45 0.95 -0.05
Actual 47 48
MI-1 McDowell Benishek
401 39 42 1.18 0.16
Actual 41 52
WV-1 Oliverio McKinley
405 42 39 1.08 0.07
Actual 50 50
AZ-1 Kirkpatrick Gosar
403 39 46 0.99 -0.01
Actual 43 50
CO-4 Markey Gardner
391 41 44 1.20 0.19
Actual 41 53
IL-11 Halvorson Kinzinger
401 31 49 0.84 -0.18
Actual 43 57
MD-1 Kratovil Harris
400 40 43 1.25 0.22
Actual 41 55
MI-7 Schauer Walberg
404 41 41 1.11 0.11
Actual 45 50
NV-3 Titus Heck
403 44 47 0.96 -0.04
Actual 47 48
NM-2 Teague Pearce
401 42 46 1.12 0.11
Actual 45 55
OH-15 Kilroy Stivers
404 38 47 1.21 0.19
Actual 38 57
PA-3 Dahlkemper Kelly
401 36 49 0.94 -0.07
Actual 44 56
VA-2 Nye Rigell
397 36 42 1.06 0.05
Actual 43 53
VA-5 Perriello Hurt
403 44 45 1.06 0.06
Actual 47 51

The accuracy measures for the surveys in PA-8, NY-24, and IL-10 fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

The average accuracy measure for the 31 surveys is 0.14.

 

TOP | ARG Home