American Research Group, Inc.

 

2010 Gubernatorial Pollster Ratings

Here are the pollster scorecard results for the 2010 Colorado, California, Florida, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, New Mexico, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Maine, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin, Nevada, New York, and Hawaii gubernatorial races using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

Listed are final polls completed within 21 days of the election. Polls are listed most accurate to least accurate based on the accuracy measure. Click here for results with polling aggregators.

Colorado Governor
Hickenlooper Tancredo Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
RBI 48% 34% 1.02 0.02
SurveyUSA 49% 39% 0.91 -0.09
YouGov 47% 40% 0.85 -0.16
CNN/Time 51% 31% 1.19 0.18
PPP 48% 43% 0.81 -0.21
Rasmussen 47% 42% 0.81 -0.21
Fox 47% 44% 0.77 -0.26
Actual 50.7% 36.7%

The accuracy measures for all but the RBI and SurveyUSA polls fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

California Governor
Whitman Brown Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
SurveyUSA 37% 48% 1.00 0.00
Field 39% 49% 1.03 0.03
YouGov 41% 51% 1.04 0.04
Fox 41% 50% 1.06 0.06
Tulchin 37% 45% 1.07 0.06
Suffolk 42% 50% 1.09 0.09
CNN/Time 44% 51% 1.12 0.11
PPP 46% 51% 1.17 0.16
Rasmussen 45% 49% 1.19 0.18
Actual 41.3% 53.6%

The accuracy measures for the PPP and Rasmussen polls fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Florida Governor
Scott Sink Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
YouGov 45% 45% 0.98 -0.02
Rasmussen 48% 45% 1.04 0.04
PPP 47% 48% 0.96 -0.05
Quinnipiac 43% 44% 0.95 -0.05
Susquehanna 49% 45% 1.06 0.06
YouGov 41% 44% 0.91 -0.09
Mason-Dixon 43% 46% 0.91 -0.09
USFP 44% 39% 1.10 0.10
Zogby 39% 43% 0.89 -0.12
Actual 48.88% 47.72%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence interval.

Massachusetts Governor
Baker Patrick Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Suffolk 39% 46% 0.99 -0.01
WNEC 37% 42% 1.03 0.03
UNH 39% 43% 1.06 0.06
Rasmussen 44% 46% 1.11 0.11
Actual 41.8% 48.7%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence interval.

New Hampshire Governor
Stephen Lynch Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
UNH 41% 49% 0.98 -0.02
PPP 44% 53% 0.97 -0.03
Rasmussen 45% 51% 1.03 0.03
Actual 41.8% 48.7%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence interval.

The accuracy measures for five of the seven final polls in Colorado were outside the 95% confidence intervals. And the accuracy measures for two of the nine final polls in California were outside the 95% confidence intervals.

The accuracy measures for the PPP and Rasmussen polls in Colorado and California were outside the 95% confidence intervals.

 

Minnesota Governor
Emmer Dayton Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
SurveyUSA 38% 39% 0.98 -0.02
PPP 40% 43% 0.94 -0.06
Star Tribune 34% 41% 0.84 -0.18
St. Cloud State 30% 40% 0.76 -0.28
MPR 29% 41% 0.71 -0.34
Actual 43.21% 43.63%

The accuracy measures for the Star Tribune survey, the St. Cloud State survey, and the MPR survey fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Ohio Governor
Kasich Strickland Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Columbus Dispatch 49% 47% 0.99 -0.01
YouGov 48% 45% 1.01 0.01
PPP 49% 48% 0.97 -0.03
University of Cincinnati 52% 48% 1.03 0.03
Fox 48% 44% 1.03 0.03
Rasmussen 48% 44% 1.03 0.03
SurveyUSA 49% 44% 1.06 0.05
Quinnipiac 46% 47% 0.93 -0.08
Feldman 42% 46% 0.87 -0.14
Actual 49.33% 46.74%

The accuracy measure for the Feldman survey falls outside the 95% confidence interval.

Oregon Governor
Dudley Kitzhaber Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Grove 45% 49% 0.94 -0.06
Rasmussen 49% 46% 1.09 0.08
Portland Tribune 46% 43% 1.09 0.09
SurveyUSA 41% 48% 0.87 -0.14
Actual 48% 49%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

New Mexico Governor
Martinez Denish Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
POS 50% 42% 1.03 0.03
Albuquerque Journal 53% 43% 1.07 0.06
Rasmussen 52% 42% 1.07 0.07
GQR 46% 45% 0.88 -0.12
Actual 53.6% 46.4%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Maryland Governor
Ehrlich O'Malley Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Washington Post 40% 54% 0.98 -0.02
Rasmussen 42% 52% 1.07 0.07
Actual 42.21% 55.81%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

 

Pennsylvania Governor
Corbett Onorato Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Rasmussen 52% 43% 1.01 0.01
Quinnipiac 52% 42% 1.03 0.03
Muhlenberg 49% 42% 0.97 -0.03
CNN/Time 52% 45% 0.96 -0.04
PPP 52% 45% 0.96 -0.04
Ipsos 49% 43% 0.95 -0.05
YouGov 51% 40% 1.06 0.06
Susquehanna 48% 47% 0.85 -0.16
Franklin and Marshall 51% 35% 1.22 0.20
Actual 54.5% 45.5%

The accuracy measure for the Susquehanna survey falls outside the 95% confidence interval.

Maine Governor
LePage Cutler Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Down East 39% 29% 1.28 0.25
PPP 40% 28% 1.36 0.31
Rasmussen 40% 26% 1.46 0.38
Actual 38.33% 36.49%

The accuracy measures for the PPP and Rasmussen surveys fall outside the 95% confidence interval.

Rhode Island Governor
Robitaille Chafee Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
NBC 10 28% 35% 0.86 -0.15
Fleming 26% 33% 0.85 -0.17
Rasmussen 25% 35% 0.77 -0.26
Actual 33.6% 36.1%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Texas Governor
Perry White Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Rasmussen 51% 42% 0.93 -0.07
PPP 53% 44% 0.93 -0.08
Actual 54.97% 42.28%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Vermont Governor
Dubie Shumlin Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Rasmussen 45% 50% 0.93 -0.07
Actual 47.46% 49.24%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

Wisconsin Governor
Walker Barrett Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
PPP 53% 44% 1.09 0.09
YouGov 53% 43% 1.11 0.11
Rasmussen 52% 42% 1.12 0.11
Actual 52% 47%

None of the accuracy measures fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

The PPP survey in Maine had a sample size of 1,812 likely voters. Even if the sample size were reduced to 400 likely voters with the same results, the accuracy measure would fall outside the 95% confidence interval. Again, increasing the sample size did not improve the accuracy of this survey. This is the sixth race where PPP surveys fall outside the 95% confidence interval for the accuracy measure (US Senate: West Virginia, New Hampshire, Washington. Governor: Maine, Colorado, California).

 

Nevada Governor
Sandoval Reid Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
PPP 55% 44% 0.97 -0.03
YouGov 56% 40% 1.09 0.09
Mason-Dixon 54% 38% 1.11 0.10
Rasmussen 58% 35% 1.29 0.26
CNN/Time 58% 34% 1.33 0.29
Actual 53.36% 41.61%

The accuracy measures for the Rasmussen and CNN/Time surveys fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

New York Governor
Paladino Cuomo Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Siena 33% 58% 1.02 0.02
YouGov 29% 56% 0.93 -0.07
SurveyUSA 33% 55% 1.08 0.08
Marist 37% 60% 1.11 0.10
Quinnipiac 35% 55% 1.15 0.14
Rasmussen 37% 51% 1.31 0.27
NY Times 24% 59% 0.73 -0.31
Actual 34.1% 61.4%

The accuracy measures for the Rasmussen and New York Times surveys fall outside the 95% confidence interval.

Hawaii Governor
Aiona Abercrombie Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Ward 43% 51% 1.19 0.18
Rasmussen 47% 49% 1.36 0.31
Actual 40.8% 57.8%

The accuracy measures for both the Ward and Rasmussen surveys fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.

The following tables list the polling accuracy measures for 19 gubernatorial races with the final predictions/averages for each race from Pollster.com (Pollster), FiveThirtyEight (538), and RealClearPolitics.com (RCP).

Colorado Governor
Hickenlooper Tancredo Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
RBI 48% 34% 1.02 0.02
SurveyUSA 49% 39% 0.91 -0.09
538 53% 42% 0.91 -0.09
YouGov 47% 40% 0.85 -0.16
CNN/Time 51% 31% 1.19 0.18
Pollster 47.6% 41.1% 0.84 -0.18
PPP 48% 43% 0.81 -0.21
Rasmussen 47% 42% 0.81 -0.21
RCP 47.3% 43.3% 0.79 -0.23
Fox 47% 44% 0.77 -0.26
Actual 50.7% 36.7%

 

California Governor
Whitman Brown Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
SurveyUSA 37% 48% 1.00 0.00
Field 39% 49% 1.03 0.03
YouGov 41% 51% 1.04 0.04
Fox 41% 50% 1.06 0.06
Tulchin 37% 45% 1.07 0.06
Pollster 41.0% 49.5% 1.07 0.07
538 44% 53% 1.08 0.07
Suffolk 42% 50% 1.09 0.09
CNN/Time 44% 51% 1.12 0.11
RCP 42.7% 49.3% 1.12 0.12
PPP 46% 51% 1.17 0.16
Rasmussen 45% 49% 1.19 0.18
Actual 41.3% 53.6%

 

Florida Governor
Scott Sink Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
RCP 45.7 44.5 1.00 0.00
YouGov 45% 45% 0.98 -0.02
Pollster 45.5% 45.3% 0.98 -0.02
538 49% 49% 0.98 -0.02
Rasmussen 48% 45% 1.04 0.04
PPP 47% 48% 0.96 -0.05
Quinnipiac 43% 44% 0.95 -0.05
Susquehanna 49% 45% 1.06 0.06
YouGov 41% 44% 0.91 -0.09
Mason-Dixon 43% 46% 0.91 -0.09
USFP 44% 39% 1.10 0.10
Zogby 39% 43% 0.89 -0.12
Actual 48.88% 47.72%

 

Massachusetts Governor
Baker Patrick Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Suffolk 39% 46% 0.99 -0.01
WNEC 37% 42% 1.03 0.03
538 43% 48% 1.04 0.04
RCP 39.8% 44.3% 1.05 0.05
UNH 39% 43% 1.06 0.06
Pollster 40.8% 44.0% 1.08 0.08
Rasmussen 44% 46% 1.11 0.11
Actual 41.8% 48.7%

 

New Hampshire Governor
Stephen Lynch Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
RCP 43.3% 51.0% 0.99 -0.01
UNH 41% 49% 0.98 -0.02
PPP 44% 53% 0.97 -0.03
Rasmussen 45% 51% 1.03 0.03
538 45% 54% 0.97 -0.03
Pollster 42.5% 51.0% 0.97 -0.03
Actual 41.8% 48.7%

Minnesota Governor
Emmer Dayton Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
SurveyUSA 38% 39% 0.98 -0.02
PPP 40% 43% 0.94 -0.06
Pollster 37.0 42.0 0.89 -0.12
RCP 36.4% 41.6% 0.88 -0.12
538 39% 45% 0.88 -0.13
Star Tribune 34% 41% 0.84 -0.18
St. Cloud State 30% 40% 0.76 -0.28
MPR 29% 41% 0.71 -0.34
Actual 43.21% 43.63%

 

Ohio Governor
Kasich Strickland Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
RCP 49.0% 46.5% 1.00 0.00
Columbus Dispatch 49% 47% 0.99 -0.01
YouGov 48% 45% 1.01 0.01
538 50% 48% 0.00 -0.01
Pollster 48.1% 46.0% 0.99 -0.01
PPP 49% 48% 0.97 -0.03
University of Cincinnati 52% 48% 1.03 0.03
Fox 48% 44% 1.03 0.03
Rasmussen 48% 44% 1.03 0.03
SurveyUSA 49% 44% 1.06 0.05
Quinnipiac 46% 47% 0.93 -0.08
Feldman 42% 46% 0.87 -0.14
Actual 49.33% 46.74%

 

Oregon Governor
Dudley Kitzhaber Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Pollster 45.7% 46.5% 1.00 0.00
RCP 44.3% 46.7% 0.97 -0.03
538 47% 50% 0.96 -0.04
Grove 45% 49% 0.94 -0.06
Rasmussen 49% 46% 1.09 0.08
Portland Tribune 46% 43% 1.09 0.09
SurveyUSA 41% 48% 0.87 -0.14
Actual 48% 49%

 

New Mexico Governor
Martinez Denish Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
POS 50% 42% 1.03 0.03
Pollster 51.3% 43.1% 1.03 0.03
538 54% 45% 1.04 0.04
Albuquerque Journal 53% 43% 1.07 0.06
Rasmussen 52% 42% 1.07 0.07
RCP 53.0% 42.3% 1.08 0.08
GQR 46% 45% 0.88 -0.12
Actual 53.6% 46.4%

 

Maryland Governor
Ehrlich O'Malley Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Washington Post 40% 54% 0.98 -0.02
Pollster 40.6% 51.5% 1.04 0.04
RCP 40.5% 51.3% 1.04 0.04
Rasmussen 42% 52% 1.07 0.07
538 44% 53% 1.10 0.09
Actual 42.21% 55.81%

 

Pennsylvania Governor
Corbett Onorato Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Rasmussen 52% 43% 1.01 0.01
RCP 50.7% 42.8% 0.99 -0.01
Pollster 50.7% 43.0% 0.98 -0.02
538 55% 45% 1.02 0.02
Quinnipiac 52% 42% 1.03 0.03
Muhlenberg 49% 42% 0.97 -0.03
CNN/Time 52% 45% 0.96 -0.04
PPP 52% 45% 0.96 -0.04
Ipsos 49% 43% 0.95 -0.05
YouGov 51% 40% 1.06 0.06
Susquehanna 48% 47% 0.85 -0.16
Franklin and Marshall 51% 35% 1.22 0.20
Actual 54.5% 45.5%

 

Maine Governor
LePage Cutler Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Down East 39% 29% 1.28 0.25
PPP 40% 28% 1.36 0.31
RCP 39.3% 26.5% 1.41 0.34
Pollster 38.9% 26.3% 1.41 0.34
538 41% 27% 1.45 0.37
Rasmussen 40% 26% 1.46 0.38
Actual 38.33% 36.49%

 

Rhode Island Governor
Robitaille Chafee Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
NBC 10 28% 35% 0.86 -0.15
Fleming 26% 33% 0.85 -0.17
538 28% 36% 0.84 -0.18
RCP 26.3% 34.2% 0.82 -0.19
Pollster 25.5% 34.0% 0.81 -0.22
Rasmussen 25% 35% 0.77 -0.26
Actual 33.6% 36.1%

 

Texas Governor
Perry White Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
RCP 51.0% 41.3% 0.95 -0.05
Pollster 51.4% 42.0% 0.94 -0.06
Rasmussen 51% 42% 0.93 -0.07
PPP 53% 44% 0.93 -0.08
538 53% 44% 0.93 -0.08
Actual 54.97% 42.28%

 

Vermont Governor*
Dubie Shumlin Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
538 47% 51% 0.96 -0.04
Pollster 45% 45% 1.04 0.04
Rasmussen 45% 50% 0.93 -0.07
Actual 47.46% 49.24%
* No average for RCP

 

Wisconsin Governor
Walker Barrett Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
538 53% 45% 1.06 0.06
Pollster 51.5% 43.5% 1.07 0.07
RCP 52.0% 43.3% 1.09 0.08
PPP 53% 44% 1.09 0.09
YouGov 53% 43% 1.11 0.11
Rasmussen 52% 42% 1.12 0.11
Actual 52% 47%

 

Nevada Governor
Sandoval Reid Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
PPP 55% 44% 0.97 -0.03
YouGov 56% 40% 1.09 0.09
Mason-Dixon 54% 38% 1.11 0.10
RCP 55.7% 39.0% 1.11 0.11
Pollster 56.0% 38.6% 1.13 0.12
538 59% 39% 1.18 0.17
Rasmussen 58% 35% 1.29 0.26
CNN/Time 58% 34% 1.33 0.29
Actual 53.36% 41.61%

 

New York Governor
Paladino Cuomo Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Pollster 31.6% 56.6% 1.01 0.01
Siena 33% 58% 1.02 0.02
YouGov 29% 56% 0.93 -0.07
SurveyUSA 33% 55% 1.08 0.08
Marist 37% 60% 1.11 0.10
538 37% 60% 1.11 0.10
Quinnipiac 35% 55% 1.15 0.14
RCP 35.0% 55.0% 1.14 0.14
Rasmussen 37% 51% 1.31 0.27
NY Times 24% 59% 0.73 -0.31
Actual 34.1% 61.4%

 

Hawaii Governor
Aiona Abercrombie Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Ward 43% 51% 1.19 0.18
538 46% 53% 1.23 0.21
RCP 45.0% 50.0% 1.28 0.24
Pollster 45.3% 48.9% 1.31 0.27
Rasmussen 47% 49% 1.36 0.31
Actual 40.8% 57.8%

 

The absolute average accuracy is 0.091 for Pollster.com, 0.094 for FiveThirtyEight, and 0.102 for RealClearPolitics. The absolute average accuracy is 0.108 for the gubernatorial polls listed above.

RealClearPolitics had 0.00 accuracy ratings (the best) in Florida and Ohio. Pollster.com had a 0.00 accuracy rating in Oregon.

The average rank is 3.6 for Pollster.com, 3.8 for RealClearPolitics, and 3.9 for FiveThirtyEight.

As was the case with the US Senate pollster ratings, none of the three polling aggregators can point to a superior methodology based on the polling accuracy results.

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