2010 Gubernatorial Pollster
Ratings
Here are the pollster scorecard results
for
the 2010 Colorado, California, Florida, Massachusetts, New
Hampshire, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, New Mexico, Maryland, Pennsylvania,
Maine, Rhode Island,
Texas, Vermont, Wisconsin, Nevada, New York, and Hawaii
gubernatorial
races using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
Listed are final polls completed within 21 days
of the election. Polls are listed most accurate to least accurate
based on the accuracy measure. Click here for results with polling aggregators.
Colorado Governor


Hickenlooper 
Tancredo 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
RBI 
48% 
34% 
1.02 
0.02 
SurveyUSA 
49% 
39% 
0.91 
0.09 
YouGov 
47% 
40% 
0.85 
0.16 
CNN/Time 
51% 
31% 
1.19 
0.18 
PPP 
48% 
43% 
0.81 
0.21 
Rasmussen 
47% 
42% 
0.81 
0.21 
Fox 
47% 
44% 
0.77 
0.26 
Actual 
50.7% 
36.7% 


The accuracy measures for all but the RBI and SurveyUSA
polls fall
outside the 95% confidence intervals.
California Governor 

Whitman 
Brown 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
SurveyUSA 
37% 
48% 
1.00 
0.00 
Field 
39% 
49% 
1.03 
0.03 
YouGov 
41% 
51% 
1.04 
0.04 
Fox 
41% 
50% 
1.06 
0.06 
Tulchin 
37% 
45% 
1.07 
0.06 
Suffolk 
42% 
50% 
1.09 
0.09 
CNN/Time 
44% 
51% 
1.12 
0.11 
PPP 
46% 
51% 
1.17 
0.16 
Rasmussen 
45% 
49% 
1.19 
0.18 
Actual 
41.3% 
53.6% 


The accuracy measures for the PPP and Rasmussen
polls fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
Florida Governor 

Scott 
Sink 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
YouGov 
45% 
45% 
0.98 
0.02 
Rasmussen 
48% 
45% 
1.04 
0.04 
PPP 
47% 
48% 
0.96 
0.05 
Quinnipiac 
43% 
44% 
0.95 
0.05 
Susquehanna 
49% 
45% 
1.06 
0.06 
YouGov 
41% 
44% 
0.91 
0.09 
MasonDixon 
43% 
46% 
0.91 
0.09 
USFP 
44% 
39% 
1.10 
0.10 
Zogby 
39% 
43% 
0.89 
0.12 
Actual 
48.88% 
47.72% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
Massachusetts Governor 

Baker 
Patrick 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Suffolk 
39% 
46% 
0.99 
0.01 
WNEC 
37% 
42% 
1.03 
0.03 
UNH 
39% 
43% 
1.06 
0.06 
Rasmussen 
44% 
46% 
1.11 
0.11 
Actual 
41.8% 
48.7% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
New Hampshire Governor 

Stephen 
Lynch 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
UNH 
41% 
49% 
0.98 
0.02 
PPP 
44% 
53% 
0.97 
0.03 
Rasmussen 
45% 
51% 
1.03 
0.03 
Actual 
41.8% 
48.7% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
The accuracy measures for five of the seven
final polls in Colorado were outside the 95% confidence intervals.
And the accuracy measures
for two of the nine final polls in California were outside
the 95% confidence intervals.
The accuracy measures for the PPP and Rasmussen
polls in Colorado and California were outside the 95% confidence
intervals.
Minnesota Governor


Emmer 
Dayton 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
SurveyUSA 
38% 
39% 
0.98 
0.02 
PPP 
40% 
43% 
0.94 
0.06 
Star Tribune 
34% 
41% 
0.84 
0.18 
St. Cloud State 
30% 
40% 
0.76 
0.28 
MPR 
29% 
41% 
0.71 
0.34 
Actual 
43.21% 
43.63% 


The accuracy measures for the Star Tribune survey,
the St. Cloud State
survey,
and the MPR survey fall
outside the 95% confidence intervals.
Ohio Governor 

Kasich 
Strickland 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Columbus Dispatch 
49% 
47% 
0.99 
0.01 
YouGov 
48% 
45% 
1.01 
0.01 
PPP 
49% 
48% 
0.97 
0.03 
University of Cincinnati 
52% 
48% 
1.03 
0.03 
Fox 
48% 
44% 
1.03 
0.03 
Rasmussen 
48% 
44% 
1.03 
0.03 
SurveyUSA 
49% 
44% 
1.06 
0.05 
Quinnipiac 
46% 
47% 
0.93 
0.08 
Feldman 
42% 
46% 
0.87 
0.14 
Actual 
49.33% 
46.74% 


The accuracy measure for the Feldman survey falls
outside the 95% confidence interval.
Oregon Governor 

Dudley 
Kitzhaber 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Grove 
45% 
49% 
0.94 
0.06 
Rasmussen 
49% 
46% 
1.09 
0.08 
Portland Tribune 
46% 
43% 
1.09 
0.09 
SurveyUSA 
41% 
48% 
0.87 
0.14 
Actual 
48% 
49% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
New Mexico Governor 

Martinez 
Denish 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
POS 
50% 
42% 
1.03 
0.03 
Albuquerque Journal 
53% 
43% 
1.07 
0.06 
Rasmussen 
52% 
42% 
1.07 
0.07 
GQR 
46% 
45% 
0.88 
0.12 
Actual 
53.6% 
46.4% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
Maryland Governor 

Ehrlich 
O'Malley 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Washington Post 
40% 
54% 
0.98 
0.02 
Rasmussen 
42% 
52% 
1.07 
0.07 
Actual 
42.21% 
55.81% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
Pennsylvania Governor


Corbett 
Onorato 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Rasmussen 
52% 
43% 
1.01 
0.01 
Quinnipiac 
52% 
42% 
1.03 
0.03 
Muhlenberg 
49% 
42% 
0.97 
0.03 
CNN/Time 
52% 
45% 
0.96 
0.04 
PPP 
52% 
45% 
0.96 
0.04 
Ipsos 
49% 
43% 
0.95 
0.05 
YouGov 
51% 
40% 
1.06 
0.06 
Susquehanna 
48% 
47% 
0.85 
0.16 
Franklin and Marshall 
51% 
35% 
1.22 
0.20 
Actual 
54.5% 
45.5% 


The accuracy measure for the Susquehanna survey
falls
outside the 95% confidence interval.
Maine Governor 

LePage 
Cutler 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Down East 
39% 
29% 
1.28 
0.25 
PPP 
40% 
28% 
1.36 
0.31 
Rasmussen 
40% 
26% 
1.46 
0.38 
Actual 
38.33% 
36.49% 


The accuracy measures for the PPP and Rasmussen
surveys fall
outside the 95% confidence interval.
Rhode Island Governor 

Robitaille 
Chafee 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
NBC 10 
28% 
35% 
0.86 
0.15 
Fleming 
26% 
33% 
0.85 
0.17 
Rasmussen 
25% 
35% 
0.77 
0.26 
Actual 
33.6% 
36.1% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
Texas Governor 

Perry 
White 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Rasmussen 
51% 
42% 
0.93 
0.07 
PPP 
53% 
44% 
0.93 
0.08 
Actual 
54.97% 
42.28% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
Vermont Governor 

Dubie 
Shumlin 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Rasmussen 
45% 
50% 
0.93 
0.07 
Actual 
47.46% 
49.24% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
Wisconsin Governor 

Walker 
Barrett 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
PPP 
53% 
44% 
1.09 
0.09 
YouGov 
53% 
43% 
1.11 
0.11 
Rasmussen 
52% 
42% 
1.12 
0.11 
Actual 
52% 
47% 


None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
The PPP survey in Maine had
a sample size of
1,812 likely voters. Even if the sample size were reduced to
400 likely voters with the same
results, the accuracy measure would fall outside the 95% confidence
interval. Again, increasing
the sample size did not improve the accuracy of this survey.
This is the sixth race where PPP surveys fall outside the 95% confidence
interval for the accuracy
measure (US Senate: West Virginia, New Hampshire, Washington. Governor:
Maine, Colorado, California).
Nevada Governor


Sandoval 
Reid 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
PPP 
55% 
44% 
0.97 
0.03 
YouGov 
56% 
40% 
1.09 
0.09 
MasonDixon 
54% 
38% 
1.11 
0.10 
Rasmussen 
58% 
35% 
1.29 
0.26 
CNN/Time 
58% 
34% 
1.33 
0.29 
Actual 
53.36% 
41.61% 


The accuracy measures for the Rasmussen and CNN/Time
surveys fall
outside the 95% confidence intervals.
New York Governor 

Paladino 
Cuomo 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Siena 
33% 
58% 
1.02 
0.02 
YouGov 
29% 
56% 
0.93 
0.07 
SurveyUSA 
33% 
55% 
1.08 
0.08 
Marist 
37% 
60% 
1.11 
0.10 
Quinnipiac 
35% 
55% 
1.15 
0.14 
Rasmussen 
37% 
51% 
1.31 
0.27 
NY Times 
24% 
59% 
0.73 
0.31 
Actual 
34.1% 
61.4% 


The accuracy measures for the Rasmussen and New
York Times surveys fall
outside the 95% confidence interval.
Hawaii Governor 

Aiona 
Abercrombie 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Ward 
43% 
51% 
1.19 
0.18 
Rasmussen 
47% 
49% 
1.36 
0.31 
Actual 
40.8% 
57.8% 


The accuracy measures for both the Ward and Rasmussen
surveys fall outside
the
95% confidence intervals.
The
following tables list the polling accuracy
measures for 19 gubernatorial races with the final predictions/averages
for each race from Pollster.com
(Pollster), FiveThirtyEight (538), and RealClearPolitics.com
(RCP).
Colorado Governor


Hickenlooper 
Tancredo 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
RBI 
48% 
34% 
1.02 
0.02 
SurveyUSA 
49% 
39% 
0.91 
0.09 
538

53% 
42% 
0.91 
0.09 
YouGov 
47% 
40% 
0.85 
0.16 
CNN/Time 
51% 
31% 
1.19 
0.18 
Pollster

47.6% 
41.1% 
0.84 
0.18 
PPP 
48% 
43% 
0.81 
0.21 
Rasmussen 
47% 
42% 
0.81 
0.21 
RCP

47.3% 
43.3% 
0.79 
0.23 
Fox 
47% 
44% 
0.77 
0.26 
Actual 
50.7% 
36.7% 


California Governor 

Whitman 
Brown 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
SurveyUSA 
37% 
48% 
1.00 
0.00 
Field 
39% 
49% 
1.03 
0.03 
YouGov 
41% 
51% 
1.04 
0.04 
Fox 
41% 
50% 
1.06 
0.06 
Tulchin 
37% 
45% 
1.07 
0.06 
Pollster

41.0% 
49.5% 
1.07 
0.07 
538 
44% 
53% 
1.08 
0.07 
Suffolk 
42% 
50% 
1.09 
0.09 
CNN/Time 
44% 
51% 
1.12 
0.11 
RCP

42.7% 
49.3% 
1.12 
0.12 
PPP 
46% 
51% 
1.17 
0.16 
Rasmussen 
45% 
49% 
1.19 
0.18 
Actual 
41.3% 
53.6% 


Florida Governor 

Scott 
Sink 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
RCP

45.7 
44.5 
1.00 
0.00 
YouGov 
45% 
45% 
0.98 
0.02 
Pollster

45.5% 
45.3% 
0.98 
0.02 
538 
49% 
49% 
0.98 
0.02 
Rasmussen 
48% 
45% 
1.04 
0.04 
PPP 
47% 
48% 
0.96 
0.05 
Quinnipiac 
43% 
44% 
0.95 
0.05 
Susquehanna 
49% 
45% 
1.06 
0.06 
YouGov 
41% 
44% 
0.91 
0.09 
MasonDixon 
43% 
46% 
0.91 
0.09 
USFP 
44% 
39% 
1.10 
0.10 
Zogby 
39% 
43% 
0.89 
0.12 
Actual 
48.88% 
47.72% 


Massachusetts Governor 

Baker 
Patrick 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Suffolk 
39% 
46% 
0.99 
0.01 
WNEC 
37% 
42% 
1.03 
0.03 
538

43% 
48% 
1.04 
0.04 
RCP 
39.8% 
44.3% 
1.05 
0.05 
UNH 
39% 
43% 
1.06 
0.06 
Pollster

40.8% 
44.0% 
1.08 
0.08 
Rasmussen 
44% 
46% 
1.11 
0.11 
Actual 
41.8% 
48.7% 


New Hampshire Governor 

Stephen 
Lynch 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
RCP

43.3% 
51.0% 
0.99 
0.01 
UNH 
41% 
49% 
0.98 
0.02 
PPP 
44% 
53% 
0.97 
0.03 
Rasmussen 
45% 
51% 
1.03 
0.03 
538 
45% 
54% 
0.97 
0.03 
Pollster 
42.5% 
51.0% 
0.97 
0.03 
Actual 
41.8% 
48.7% 


Minnesota Governor


Emmer 
Dayton 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
SurveyUSA 
38% 
39% 
0.98 
0.02 
PPP 
40% 
43% 
0.94 
0.06 
Pollster

37.0 
42.0 
0.89 
0.12 
RCP 
36.4% 
41.6% 
0.88 
0.12 
538 
39% 
45% 
0.88 
0.13 
Star Tribune 
34% 
41% 
0.84 
0.18 
St. Cloud State 
30% 
40% 
0.76 
0.28 
MPR 
29% 
41% 
0.71 
0.34 
Actual 
43.21% 
43.63% 


Ohio Governor 

Kasich 
Strickland 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
RCP

49.0% 
46.5% 
1.00 
0.00 
Columbus Dispatch 
49% 
47% 
0.99 
0.01 
YouGov 
48% 
45% 
1.01 
0.01 
538

50% 
48% 
0.00 
0.01 
Pollster 
48.1% 
46.0% 
0.99 
0.01 
PPP 
49% 
48% 
0.97 
0.03 
University of Cincinnati 
52% 
48% 
1.03 
0.03 
Fox 
48% 
44% 
1.03 
0.03 
Rasmussen 
48% 
44% 
1.03 
0.03 
SurveyUSA 
49% 
44% 
1.06 
0.05 
Quinnipiac 
46% 
47% 
0.93 
0.08 
Feldman 
42% 
46% 
0.87 
0.14 
Actual 
49.33% 
46.74% 


Oregon Governor 

Dudley 
Kitzhaber 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Pollster

45.7% 
46.5% 
1.00 
0.00 
RCP 
44.3% 
46.7% 
0.97 
0.03 
538 
47% 
50% 
0.96 
0.04 
Grove 
45% 
49% 
0.94 
0.06 
Rasmussen 
49% 
46% 
1.09 
0.08 
Portland Tribune 
46% 
43% 
1.09 
0.09 
SurveyUSA 
41% 
48% 
0.87 
0.14 
Actual 
48% 
49% 


New Mexico Governor 

Martinez 
Denish 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
POS 
50% 
42% 
1.03 
0.03 
Pollster

51.3% 
43.1% 
1.03 
0.03 
538 
54% 
45% 
1.04 
0.04 
Albuquerque Journal 
53% 
43% 
1.07 
0.06 
Rasmussen 
52% 
42% 
1.07 
0.07 
RCP

53.0% 
42.3% 
1.08 
0.08 
GQR 
46% 
45% 
0.88 
0.12 
Actual 
53.6% 
46.4% 


Maryland Governor 

Ehrlich 
O'Malley 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Washington Post 
40% 
54% 
0.98 
0.02 
Pollster

40.6% 
51.5% 
1.04 
0.04 
RCP 
40.5% 
51.3% 
1.04 
0.04 
Rasmussen 
42% 
52% 
1.07 
0.07 
538 
44% 
53% 
1.10 
0.09 
Actual 
42.21% 
55.81% 


Pennsylvania Governor


Corbett 
Onorato 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Rasmussen 
52% 
43% 
1.01 
0.01 
RCP

50.7% 
42.8% 
0.99 
0.01 
Pollster 
50.7% 
43.0% 
0.98 
0.02 
538 
55% 
45% 
1.02 
0.02 
Quinnipiac 
52% 
42% 
1.03 
0.03 
Muhlenberg 
49% 
42% 
0.97 
0.03 
CNN/Time 
52% 
45% 
0.96 
0.04 
PPP 
52% 
45% 
0.96 
0.04 
Ipsos 
49% 
43% 
0.95 
0.05 
YouGov 
51% 
40% 
1.06 
0.06 
Susquehanna 
48% 
47% 
0.85 
0.16 
Franklin and Marshall 
51% 
35% 
1.22 
0.20 
Actual 
54.5% 
45.5% 


Maine Governor 

LePage 
Cutler 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Down East 
39% 
29% 
1.28 
0.25 
PPP 
40% 
28% 
1.36 
0.31 
RCP

39.3% 
26.5% 
1.41 
0.34 
Pollster 
38.9% 
26.3% 
1.41 
0.34 
538 
41% 
27% 
1.45 
0.37 
Rasmussen 
40% 
26% 
1.46 
0.38 
Actual 
38.33% 
36.49% 


Rhode Island Governor 

Robitaille 
Chafee 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
NBC 10 
28% 
35% 
0.86 
0.15 
Fleming 
26% 
33% 
0.85 
0.17 
538

28% 
36% 
0.84 
0.18 
RCP 
26.3% 
34.2% 
0.82 
0.19 
Pollster 
25.5% 
34.0% 
0.81 
0.22 
Rasmussen 
25% 
35% 
0.77 
0.26 
Actual 
33.6% 
36.1% 


Texas Governor 

Perry 
White 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
RCP

51.0% 
41.3% 
0.95 
0.05 
Pollster 
51.4% 
42.0% 
0.94 
0.06 
Rasmussen 
51% 
42% 
0.93 
0.07 
PPP 
53% 
44% 
0.93 
0.08 
538 
53% 
44% 
0.93 
0.08 
Actual 
54.97% 
42.28% 


Vermont Governor* 

Dubie 
Shumlin 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
538

47% 
51% 
0.96 
0.04 
Pollster 
45% 
45% 
1.04 
0.04 
Rasmussen 
45% 
50% 
0.93 
0.07 
Actual 
47.46% 
49.24% 


* No average for RCP 
Wisconsin Governor 

Walker 
Barrett 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
538

53% 
45% 
1.06 
0.06 
Pollster 
51.5% 
43.5% 
1.07 
0.07 
RCP 
52.0% 
43.3% 
1.09 
0.08 
PPP 
53% 
44% 
1.09 
0.09 
YouGov 
53% 
43% 
1.11 
0.11 
Rasmussen 
52% 
42% 
1.12 
0.11 
Actual 
52% 
47% 


Nevada Governor


Sandoval 
Reid 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
PPP 
55% 
44% 
0.97 
0.03 
YouGov 
56% 
40% 
1.09 
0.09 
MasonDixon 
54% 
38% 
1.11 
0.10 
RCP

55.7% 
39.0% 
1.11 
0.11 
Pollster 
56.0% 
38.6% 
1.13 
0.12 
538 
59% 
39% 
1.18 
0.17 
Rasmussen 
58% 
35% 
1.29 
0.26 
CNN/Time 
58% 
34% 
1.33 
0.29 
Actual 
53.36% 
41.61% 


New York Governor 

Paladino 
Cuomo 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Pollster

31.6% 
56.6% 
1.01 
0.01 
Siena 
33% 
58% 
1.02 
0.02 
YouGov 
29% 
56% 
0.93 
0.07 
SurveyUSA 
33% 
55% 
1.08 
0.08 
Marist 
37% 
60% 
1.11 
0.10 
538

37% 
60% 
1.11 
0.10 
Quinnipiac 
35% 
55% 
1.15 
0.14 
RCP

35.0% 
55.0% 
1.14 
0.14 
Rasmussen 
37% 
51% 
1.31 
0.27 
NY Times 
24% 
59% 
0.73 
0.31 
Actual 
34.1% 
61.4% 


Hawaii Governor 

Aiona 
Abercrombie 
Odds Ratio 
Accuracy 
Ward 
43% 
51% 
1.19 
0.18 
538

46% 
53% 
1.23 
0.21 
RCP 
45.0% 
50.0% 
1.28 
0.24 
Pollster 
45.3% 
48.9% 
1.31 
0.27 
Rasmussen 
47% 
49% 
1.36 
0.31 
Actual 
40.8% 
57.8% 


The absolute average accuracy is 0.091 for Pollster.com, 0.094 for
FiveThirtyEight,
and 0.102 for RealClearPolitics. The absolute average accuracy
is 0.108 for the gubernatorial polls listed above. RealClearPolitics had 0.00 accuracy ratings (the best)
in Florida and Ohio. Pollster.com had a 0.00 accuracy rating
in Oregon. The average
rank is 3.6 for Pollster.com, 3.8 for RealClearPolitics, and
3.9 for FiveThirtyEight. As
was the case with the US Senate pollster ratings, none of the
three polling aggregators can
point to
a superior methodology based on
the polling accuracy results.
