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2021 California
Gubernatorial Recall Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the
September 14, 2021 California gubernatorial recall
election
using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2021 California
Gubernatorial Recall |
|
Yes |
No |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Berkeley IGS/LA Times |
39% |
60% |
1.06 |
0.05* |
| Emerson |
40% |
60% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| PPIC |
39% |
58% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Suffolk |
41% |
58% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| Change Research |
42% |
57% |
1.20 |
0.18* |
| SurveyMonkey |
41% |
55% |
1.21 |
0.19* |
| Stanford/YouGov |
43% |
57% |
1.23 |
0.20* |
| Data For Progress |
43% |
57% |
1.23 |
0.20* |
| KABC/SurveyUSA |
41% |
54% |
1.23 |
0.21* |
| Targoz |
42% |
52% |
1.31 |
0.27* |
| Redfield and Wilton |
43% |
51% |
1.37 |
0.31* |
| Trafalgar |
45% |
53% |
1.38 |
0.32* |
| Gravis |
44% |
49% |
1.46 |
0.38* |
| CBS News/YouGov |
48% |
52% |
1.50 |
0.41* |
|
| Actual |
38.1% |
61.9% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for 11 polls fall
outside of their respective
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all 14 polls is
0.217. The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls with accuracy measures within their respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.102. The Berkeley IGS/LA Times poll had a sample size of 6,550 and therefore has a very narrow confidence interval.
While
all 14 polls had the no vote winning, the average for the 14
polls
missed the actual no vote by about 7 percentage points and the average
for the yes vote missed the actual yes vote by about 4
percentage points.
As a reference:
Joe Biden received 63.5% of the vote in
California in 2020 and Donald Trump received 34.3% of the vote in
California in 2020.
The
average absolute accuracy for three California polls in the 2020
presidential election was 0.074. The Berkeley IGS 2020 poll had
an accuracy of 0.19, which fell outside of its 95% confidence
interval. The KGTV/SurveyUSA 2020 poll had an accuracy of -0.01.
And the PPIC 2020 poll had an accuracy of -0.03.
The average
absolute accuracy for all national polls in the
2020
presidential election was 0.085. The average
absolute accuracy for all national polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average
absolute accuracy for all national polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average
absolute accuracy for all national polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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