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2020 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Pennsylvania presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Pennsylvania President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Rasmussen Reports |
50% |
47% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Susquehanna |
48% |
49% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| CNBC/Change |
50% |
46% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Emerson |
50% |
46% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Trafalgar |
46% |
48% |
0.94 |
-0.07 |
| Insider Advantage |
47% |
49% |
0.94 |
-0.07 |
| NBC News/Marist |
51% |
46% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| The Hill/HaririsX |
51% |
46% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Fox News |
50% |
45% |
1.09 |
0.08 |
| Morning Call |
49% |
44% |
1.09 |
0.08 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
51% |
45% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Franklin and Marshall |
50% |
44% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| NYT/Siena |
49% |
43% |
1.11 |
0.11* |
| Monmouth |
51% |
44% |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| ABC News/WP |
51% |
44% |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| Quinnipiac |
51% |
44% |
1.13 |
0.12* |
| USA Today/Suffolk | 49% |
42% |
1.14 |
0.13 |
| U Wisconsin/YouGov |
52% |
44% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| CNN |
53% |
43% |
1.20 |
0.19* |
|
| Actual |
50.01% |
48.84% |
|
|
*The accuracy measures for the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 1,862),
the Quinnipiac poll (sample size
of 1,324), and the CNN
poll (sample size of 843) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 16% of all final polls in Pennsylvania.
The accuracy measures for the other 16 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.095. The average absolute accuracy for the 16 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.077. In
2016 in Pennsylvania, the average absolute accuracy for 16 final polls
was 0.116. Of the 16 final polls, 11 had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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