American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Pennsylvania Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Pennsylvania presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Pennsylvania President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Susquehanna 48% 49% 0.97 -0.03 
Rasmussen Reports 50% 47% 1.05 0.05 
Trafalgar 46% 48% 0.94 -0.06 
Insider Advantage 47% 49% 0.95 -0.06 
Rasmussen Reports 48% 47% 1.09 0.09 
CNBC/Change 50% 46% 1.07 0.07 
Emerson 50% 46% 1.07 0.07 
NBC News/Marist 51% 46% 1.09 0.09 
The Hill/HaririsX 51% 46% 1.09 0.09 
Morning Call 49% 44% 1.10 0.09 
Fox News 50% 45% 1.10 0.09 
Reuters/Ipsos 51% 45% 1.12 0.11 
Franklin and Marshall 50% 44% 1.12 0.11 
NYT/Siena 49% 43% 1.12 0.12*
Monmouth 51% 44% 1.14 0.13 
ABC News/WP 51% 44% 1.14 0.13 
Quinnipiac51% 44% 1.14 0.13*
USA Today/Suffolk 49% 42% 1.15 0.14 
U Wisconsin/YouGov 52% 44% 1.17 0.15 
CNN 53% 43% 1.22 0.19*
Actual 49.8% 49.1%

 

*The accuracy measures for the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 1,862), the Quinnipiac poll (sample size of 1,324), and the CNN poll (sample size of 843) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 16% of all final polls in Pennsylvania. 

The accuracy measures for the other 16 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.101.

The average absolute accuracy for the 16 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.081.

In 2016 in Pennsylvania, the average absolute accuracy for 16 final polls was 0.116. Of the 16 final polls, 11 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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