American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Minnesota Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Minnesota presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Minnesota President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
KSTP/SurveyUSA 48% 42% 0.99 -0.01 
Star Trib/Mason-Dixon 48% 42% 0.99 -0.01 
USA Today/Suffolk 47% 40% 1.01 0.01 
SurveyUSA 47% 42% 0.97 -0.03 
MinnPost 49% 44% 0.96 -0.04 
CBS/YouGov 50% 41% 1.05 0.05 
NYT/Siena 50% 41% 1.05 1.05 
Trafalgar 48% 45% 0.92 -0.08 
ABC News/WP 57% 41% 1.20 0.18*
Actual 52.6% 45.4%

 

*The accuracy measures for the ABC News/Washington Post poll (sample size of 615) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 11% of all final polls in Minnesota. 

The accuracy measures for the other 8 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.050.

The average absolute accuracy for the 8 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.036.

In 2016 in Minnesota, the average absolute accuracy for 5 final polls was 0.140. Of the 5 final polls, 3 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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