American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Maine Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Maine presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Maine President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Pan Atlantic 50% 40% 1.04 0.04 
Emerson 54% 43% 1.05 0.05 
Bangor Daily News 51% 40% 1.07 0.06 
Boston Globe/Suffolk 50% 39% 1.07 0.07 
Colby College 51% 38% 1.12 0.11 
NYT/Siena 55% 38% 1.21 0.19*
Quinnipiac 59% 38% 1.30 0.26*
Actual 52.9% 44.2%

 

*The accuracy measures for the New York Times/Siena poll (sample size of 663) and the Quinnipiac poll (sample size of 1,138) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 29% of all final polls in Maine. 

The accuracy measures for the other 5 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.113.

The average absolute accuracy for the 5 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.068.

In 2016 in Maine, the average absolute accuracy for 5 final polls was 0.150. Of the 5 final polls, 4 had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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