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2020 Georgia Presidential Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Georgia presidential election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2020 Georgia President |
|
Biden |
Trump |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| CBS News/YouGov |
49% |
49% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| NYT/Siena |
45% |
45% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution |
47% |
46% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Emerson |
48% |
49% |
0.98 |
-0.03 |
| PPP |
48% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA |
48% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Insider Advantage |
46% |
48% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Monmouth |
50% |
46% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| WSB-TV/Landmark |
46% |
50% |
0.92 |
-0.09 |
| Trafalgar |
45% |
50% |
0.90 |
-0.11 |
| Quinnipiac |
51% |
44% |
1.15 |
0.14* |
|
| Actual |
49.47% |
49.24% |
|
|
*The accuracy measure for the Quinnipiac poll (sample
size of 1,040) falls outside the 95% confidence intervals.
This represents approximately 9% of all final polls in Georgia.
The accuracy measures for the other 10 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.054. The average absolute accuracy for the 10 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.045. In
2016 in Georgia, the average absolute accuracy for 13 final polls
was 0.052. All 13 2016 polls had accuracy measures that were
within the respective 95% confidence intervals. As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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