American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 Georgia Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the preliminary accuracy of pollsters in the November 3, 2020 Georgia presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 Georgia President
Biden Trump Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
CBS News/YouGov 49% 49% 1.00 0.00 
NYT/Siena 45% 45% 1.00 0.00 
Atlanta Journal-Constitution 47% 46% 1.02 0.02 
Emerson 48% 49% 0.98 -0.02 
PPP 48% 46% 1.04 0.04 
WXIA-TV/SurveyUSA 48% 46% 1.04 0.04 
Insider Advantage 46% 48% 0.95 -0.05 
Monmouth 50% 46% 1.08 0.08 
WSB-TV/Landmark 46% 50% 0.92 -0.09 
Trafalgar 45% 50% 0.90 -0.11 
Quinnipiac 51% 44% 1.15 0.14*
Actual 49.5% 49.3%

 

*The accuracy measure for the Quinnipiac poll (sample size of 1,040) falls outside the 95% confidence intervals. This represents approximately 9% of all final polls in Georgia. 

The accuracy measures for the other 10 polls fall within the 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.054.

The average absolute accuracy for the 10 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.045.

In 2016 in Georgia, the average absolute accuracy for 13 final polls was 0.052. All 13 2016 polls had accuracy measures that were within the respective 95% confidence intervals.

As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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