American Research Group, Inc.

National Presidential Ballot

Interview dates: October 17-20, 2016

Sample size: 1,006 likely voters (362 Democrats, 321 Republicans, and 323 independents)

Margin of error:  3 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the election for president were being held today between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, Donald Trump, the Republican, Gary Johnson, the Libertarian, and Jill Stein, of the Green Party, for whom would you vote - Clinton, Trump, Johnson, or Stein? (names rotated)

National Presidential Ballot
  Clinton Trump Other** Undecided
Likely voters 49% 42% 5% 4%
Democrats (36%) 89% 4% 3% 4%
Republicans (32%) 10% 81% 4% 5%
Independents (32%) 44% 45% 8% 3%
Men (48%) 43% 49% 4% 4%
Women (52%) 55% 35% 6% 4%
18 to 49 (51%) 52% 40% 5% 3%
50 and older (49%) 47% 44% 5% 5%
White (77%) 42% 50% 5% 3%
African American (11%) 88% 4% 2% 6%
Registered voters:
September 17-20 47% 44% 5% 5%
August 17-20 47% 42% 6% 5%
July 17-20 43% 42% 6% 9%
June 17-20 50% 41% 3% 6%
May 17-20 46% 46% 2% 6%
**Johnson 4%, Stein 1%

See methodology for sampling details.

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