|
2012 South Carolina Republican
Presidential
Primary
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the January 21, 2012 South Carolina
Republican
Presidential primary using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates
that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the
closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2012 SC Republican Presidential Primary
|
|
Gingrich |
Romney |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| ARG |
40% |
26% |
1.06 |
0.05 |
| PPP |
37% |
28% |
0.91 |
-0.10 |
| Clemson |
32% |
26% |
0.84 |
-0.17 |
| We Ask America |
32% |
28% |
0.78 |
-0.24* |
| YouGov/Polimetrix |
33% |
29% |
0.78 |
-0.25 |
| InsiderAdvantage |
32% |
29% |
0.76 |
-0.28* |
| Rasmussen |
33% |
31% |
0.73 |
-0.31* |
| Politico/Tarrance |
30% |
37% |
0.56 |
-0.59* |
| NBC/Marist |
24% |
34% |
0.48 |
-0.72* |
| CNN/Time |
23% |
33% |
0.48 |
-0.74* |
| Monmouth/SUSA |
22% |
33% |
0.46 |
-0.78* |
| IPSOS/Reuters |
12% |
37% |
0.22 |
-1.50* |
|
| Actual |
40.5% |
27.8% |
|
|
There are no differences in the accuracy
measures for the ARG, PPP, Clemson, We Ask America, YouGov/Polimetrix, InsiderAdvantage,
and the Rasmussen polls at the 95% confidence interval.
As noted below, however, the accuracy measures
for the We Ask America, InsiderAdvantage, and Rasmussen polls fall outside of their respective
95% confidence intervals. The larger sample sizes for these polls (988 for We Ask America,
718 for InsiderAdvantage, and 750 for Rasmussen) did not increase their accuracy measures.
The accuracy measures for the ARG and PPP polls
differ from the accuracy measures of the Politico/Tarrance, NBC/Marist, CNN/Time, Monmouth/SUSA,
and the IPSOS/Reuters polls at the 95% confidence level. * The accuracy measures for
the We Ask America, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen, Politico/Tarrance, NBC/Marist, CNN/Time, Monmouth/SUSA,
and the IPSOS/Reuters polls fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
|
