|
2012 Ohio Republican
Presidential
Primary
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the March 6, 2012 Ohio
Republican
Presidential primary
using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates
that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the
closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2012 Ohio Republican Presidential Primary
|
|
Romney |
Santorum |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| PPP |
37% |
36% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Reuters/Ipsos |
32% |
32% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| CNN |
32% |
32% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| Rasmussen |
31% |
32% |
0.95 |
-0.06 |
| Quinnipiac |
34% |
31% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| NBC/Marist |
32% |
34% |
0.92 |
-0.08 |
| We Ask America |
32% |
28% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
Merriman River
Group |
38% |
33% |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| Suffolk |
33% |
37% |
0.87 |
-0.14 |
| ARG |
35% |
28% |
1.22 |
0.20 |
| YouGov |
32% |
41% |
0.76 |
-0.27* |
| Ohio Poll |
26% |
37% |
0.69 |
-0.38* |
|
| Actual |
38.0% |
37.1% |
|
|
The accuracy
measures for the Ohio Poll and the We Ask America
polls differ at the 95% confidence interval.
The Rasmussen, NBC/Marist, Suffolk, YouGov,
and Ohio Poll polls had Santorum, and not Romney, in first place. *
The accuracy measures for
the Ohio Poll and YouGov polls fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
|
