|
2012 Mississippi Republican
Presidential
Primary
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the March 13, 2012 Mississippi
Republican
Presidential primary
using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates
that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the
closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2012 Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary
|
|
Santorum |
Gingrich |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Rasmussen |
27% |
27% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| PPP |
27% |
33% |
0.78 |
-0.25 |
| ARG |
22% |
32% |
0.65 |
-0.42* |
|
| Actual |
32.8% |
31.2% |
|
|
The accuracy
measures do not differ at the 95% confidence interval. *
The accuracy measure for
the ARG poll
falls outside the
95% confidence interval.
| 2012 Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary
|
|
Santorum |
Romney |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| PPP |
27% |
31% |
0.81 |
-0.21 |
| Rasmussen |
27% |
35% |
0.72 |
-0.33* |
| ARG |
224% |
34% |
0.60 |
-0.50* |
|
| Actual |
32.8% |
30.6% |
|
|
The accuracy
measures do not differ at the 95% confidence interval.
*
The accuracy measure for
the Rasmussen and the ARG polls
fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
| 2012 Mississippi Republican Presidential Primary
|
|
Gingrich |
Romney |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| PPP |
33% |
31% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| ARG |
32% |
34% |
0.92 |
-0.08 |
| Rasmussen |
27% |
35% |
0.76 |
-0.28* |
|
| Actual |
31.2% |
30.6% |
|
|
The accuracy
measures do not differ at the 95% confidence interval.
*
The accuracy measure for
the Rasmussen poll
falls outside the
95% confidence interval. |
