|
2012 Iowa Republican Presidential
Caucus
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
average accuracy of pollsters in the January 3, 2012 Iowa Republican
Presidential Caucus using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. Because of the close finish,
three ballot match-ups were used to determine the average accuracy
- Romney/Santorum, Romney/Paul, and
Santorum/Paul.
| 2012
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
|
|
Average
Accuracy |
|
| Public Policy Polling (PPP) |
0.16 |
| American Research Group (ARG) |
0.21 |
| Insider Advantage |
0.22 |
| We Ask America |
0.27 |
| Rasmussen |
0.30 |
| CNN/Time |
0.30 |
| NBC/Marist |
0.30 |
| Des Moines Register |
0.35 |
There are no differences at the
95% confidence interval between pollsters, however:
- The Public Policy Polling survey was
the only survey to incorrectly show Ron Paul, the third place
finisher, as the winner.
- The accuracy measures for the Romney/Santorum
and the Santorum/Paul match-ups in the Des Moines Register survey fall outside the 95% confidence
intervals.
- The accuracy measures for the Romney/Santorum
and the Romney/Paul match-ups in the We Ask America survey fall outside the 95% confidence
intervals.
- The accuracy measure for the Santorum/Paul
match-up in the Rasmussen survey falls outside the 95% confidence interval.
The
following tables show the accuracy measures by candidate match-up.
| 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
|
|
Romney |
Santorum |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| PPP |
19% |
18% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Insider Advantage |
23% |
18% |
1.27 |
0.24 |
| ARG |
22% |
16% |
1.37 |
0.31 |
| We Ask America |
24% |
17% |
1.41 |
0.34 |
| Rasmussen |
23% |
16% |
1.43 |
0.36 |
| CNN/Time |
25% |
16% |
1.56 |
0.44 |
| NBC/Marist |
22% |
14% |
1.57 |
0.45 |
| Des Moines Register |
24% |
15% |
1.59 |
0.47 |
|
| Actual |
24.6% |
24.5% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for the Des
Moines Register survey and the We Ask America survey fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
| 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
|
|
Romney |
Paul |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| NBC/Marist |
22% |
19% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| CNN/Time |
25% |
22% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Des Moines Register |
24% |
22% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Insider Advantage |
23% |
22% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Rasmussen |
23% |
22% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| ARG |
22% |
17% |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| PPP |
19% |
20% |
0.83 |
-0.19 |
| We Ask America |
24% |
14% |
1.49 |
0.40 |
|
| Actual |
24.6% |
21.4% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the We
Ask America survey falls outside the 95% confidence interval.
| 2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
|
|
Santorum |
Paul |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| We Ask America |
17% |
14% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| ARG |
16% |
17% |
0.82 |
-0.20 |
| PPP |
18% |
20% |
0.79 |
-0.24 |
| Insider Advantage |
18% |
22% |
0.71 |
-0.34 |
| NBC/Marist |
14% |
19% |
0.64 |
-0.44 |
| Rasmussen |
16% |
22% |
0.64 |
-0.45 |
| CNN/Time |
16% |
22% |
0.64 |
-0.45 |
| Des Moines Register |
15% |
22% |
0.60 |
-0.52 |
|
| Actual |
24.5% |
21.4% |
|
|
The accuracy measures
for the Des Moines Register survey and the Rasmussen survey
fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
|
