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Pollster Ratings
Wisconsin State Senate
Recall Elections
Here are the pollster scorecard results
for the 6 Wisconsin State Senate recall races on August 9,
2011 using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
|
|
|
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| DIS-2 |
Cowles |
Nusbaum |
|
|
| PPP |
51% |
47% |
0.71 |
-0.34 |
| Actual |
60.4% |
39.6% |
|
|
|
| DIS-8 |
Darling |
Pasch |
|
|
| PPP |
52% |
47% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Mellman |
46% |
47% |
0.84 |
-0.17 |
| Actual |
53.7% |
46.3% |
|
|
|
| DIS-10 |
Harsdorf |
Moore |
|
|
| PPP |
50% |
45% |
0.81 |
-0.21 |
| Actual |
57.7% |
42.3% |
|
|
|
| DIS-14 |
Olsen |
Clark |
|
|
| PPP |
47% |
49% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| Mellman |
44% |
50% |
0.81 |
-0.21 |
| Actual |
52.1% |
47.9% |
|
|
|
| DIS-18 |
Hopper |
King |
|
|
| PPP |
47% |
50% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
Inside
Michigan |
45.3% |
54.7% |
0.87 |
-0.14 |
| Actual |
48.9% |
51.1% |
|
|
|
| DIS-32 |
Kapanke |
Shilling |
|
|
| PPP |
42% |
56% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
Inside
Michigan |
43% |
57% |
0.94 |
-0.07 |
| Actual |
44.6% |
55.4% |
|
|
|
| DIS-12 |
Holperin |
Simac |
|
|
| PPP |
55% |
41% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
We Ask
America |
51% |
49% |
0.84 |
-0.17 |
| Actual |
55.3% |
44.7% |
|
|
|
| DIS-22 |
Wirch |
Steitz |
|
|
| PPP |
55% |
42% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| Actual |
57.6% |
42.4% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for the PPP polls in District
2 and District 10 fall outside the 95% confidence interval. The accuracy measure for the Inside Michigan
Politics poll in District 18 falls outside the 95% confidence
interval. The average accuracy for the PPP polls is -0.13,
the average accuracy for the Mellman Group polls is -0.19,
and the average accuracy for the
Inside Michigan Politics polls is -0.10. The
average accuracy for all 10 polls is -0.14.
UPDATE:
In the August 16 recall elections
(Districts 12 and 22), the accuracy measure for the We Ask America poll in District 12 falls
outside the 95% confidence interval.
The average accuracy for the PPP
polls in the eight state senate districts is -0.10.
The average accuracy for all 13
polls is -0.12.
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