|
2011 Chicago Mayoral Election
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the February 22, 2011 election for
Mayor of Chicago using the measure of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. Final polls conducted in
2011 are included.
| Chicago Mayor
|
|
Emanuel |
Chico |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
CRMA/
We Ask America |
58.21% |
23.72% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
Chicago Tribune/WGN/
Market Shares Corp. |
49% |
19% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
NBC Chicago/
Victory Research |
44.8% |
16.1% |
1.20 |
0.19 |
ABC7/
Richard Day Research |
54% |
14% |
1.67 |
0.51 |
Chicago Teamsters/
Anzalone Liszt Research |
42% |
10% |
1.82 |
0.60 |
|
| Actual |
55.27% |
23.93% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for the ABC7/Richard Day Research survey and the Chicago
Teamsters/Anzalone Liszt Research survey fall outside the 95% confidence interval.
The average accuracy for the five surveys is
0.29.
|
