|
2010 US Senate
Pollster Ratings
Here are the pollster scorecard results
for
the Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, West Virginia,
California, Washington, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Kentucky, Connecticut, Missouri,
North Carolina, New York (special), New York, and Louisiana 2010 US Senate races using
the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. Listed are final polls completed within 21 days
of the election. Polls are listed most accurate to least accurate
based on the accuracy measure. Click here for results with polling aggregators.
| Nevada US Senate
|
|
Angle |
Reid |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
47% |
46% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| YouGov |
49% |
47% |
1.17 |
0.16 |
| Fox |
48% |
45% |
1.20 |
0.18 |
| Mason-Dixon |
49% |
45% |
1.23 |
0.20 |
| CNN/Time |
49% |
45% |
1.23 |
0.20 |
| Rasmussen |
49% |
45% |
1.23 |
0.20 |
| Actual |
44.59% |
50.24% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for all but the PPP poll fall
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing biases toward Angle.
| Colorado US Senate |
|
Buck |
Bennet |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| YouGov |
48% |
49% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| RBI |
42% |
43% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| PPP |
49% |
48% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| CNN/Time |
47% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Marist |
49% |
45% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Rasmussen |
48% |
44% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| Actual |
46.89% |
47.7% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
| Illinois US Senate |
|
Kirk |
Giannoulias |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Chicago Tribune |
44% |
41% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Fox |
46% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| PPP |
46% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Liszt |
37% |
39% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| YouGov |
44% |
47% |
0.90 |
-0.11 |
| Actual |
48.2% |
46.3% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
| Pennsylvania US Senate |
|
Toomey |
Sestak |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Susquehanna |
46% |
44% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Rasmussen |
50% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Ipsos |
46% |
46% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| CNN/Time |
49% |
45% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| YouGov |
48% |
44% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Muhlenberg |
48% |
44% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| PPP |
51% |
46% |
1.07 |
0.06 |
| Quinnipiac |
50% |
45% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| YouGov |
50% |
44% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Marist |
52% |
45% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Marshall |
48% |
40% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| Actual |
51% |
49% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
| West Virginia US Senate |
|
Raese |
Manchin |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
46% |
51% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
50% |
1.13 |
0.13 |
| Fox |
48% |
46% |
1.29 |
0.25 |
| Actual |
43.41% |
53.47% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for PPP and Fox fall
outside of the 95% confidence interval. The PPP accuracy measure
falls outside of the confidence
interval because of the large sample size for the survey (1,676).
| California US Senate |
|
Fiorina |
Boxer |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| SurveyUSA |
38% |
46% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Suffolk |
43% |
53% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Field |
41% |
49% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| CNN/Time |
45% |
50% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Fox |
44% |
48% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| PPP |
46% |
50% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| YouGov |
45% |
49% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
49% |
1.14 |
0.13 |
| Actual |
42.7% |
51.9% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval. The average accuracy for the polls in the 2010
US Senate races detailed above is 0.10. The average accuracy
for PPP in the races above is
0.10. The average accuracy for Rasmussen in the races above
is 0.12. In 2008, the average measure of accuracy for
polling in 145
US Senate races was -0.001. In 2008, the average accuracy
for PPP was 0.018. In 2008, the
average accuracy for Rasmussen was 0.016.
| Washington US Senate
|
|
Rossi |
Murray |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Fox |
47% |
49% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| YouGov |
47% |
50% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| University of Washington |
45% |
49% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| Marist |
48% |
49% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| SurveyUSA |
47% |
47% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Rasmussen |
48% |
47% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| PPP |
50% |
48% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| Actual |
48.73% |
51.27% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the PPP poll falls
outside the 95% confidence interval,
showing a bias toward Rossi.
| Florida US Senate |
|
Rubio |
Crist |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Rasmussen |
50% |
30% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Mason-Dixon |
45% |
28% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| PPP |
47% |
30% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Susquehanna |
48% |
31% |
0.94 |
-0.06 |
| Quinnipiac |
45% |
31% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| YouGov |
46% |
34% |
0.82 |
-0.20 |
| Zogby |
40% |
33% |
0.74 |
-0.31 |
| Actual |
48.92% |
29.72% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the Zogby poll falls outside the
95% confidence interval.
| Ohio US Senate |
|
Portman |
Fisher |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
57% |
39% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Quinnipiac |
56% |
37% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| SurveyUSA |
52% |
37% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
Columbus
Dispatch |
56% |
40% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
University
Cincinnati |
60% |
39% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| YouGov |
52% |
39% |
0.91 |
-0.10 |
| Wilson |
49% |
38% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| Rasmussen |
57% |
33% |
1.18 |
0.16 |
| Actual |
57.25% |
39.0% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence interval.
| New Hampshire US Senate |
|
Ayotte |
Hodes |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| UNH |
54% |
36% |
0.92 |
-0.08 |
| Rasmussen |
56% |
41% |
0.84 |
-0.18 |
| PPP |
56% |
41% |
0.84 |
-0.18 |
| Actual |
60.0% |
36.8% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the PPP poll falls
outside of the 95% confidence interval. The PPP accuracy measure
falls outside of the confidence
interval because of the large sample size for the survey (1,308). The
accuracy measures for the PPP polls in West Virginia, Ohio,
and New Hampshire fall outside
of the 95% confidence intervals because the large sample sizes
(1,676, 1,356, and 1,308 respectively)
reduced the confidence intervals. The accuracy of these three
polls did not increase as the
sample sizes increased. Accuracy measures for three PPP surveys (West
Virginia, Washington, and New Hampshire) fall outside of the
95% confidence intervals. Accuracy
measures for two Fox News surveys (Nevada and West Virginia)
fall outside of the 95% confidence
interval. And accuracy measures for the YouGov, Mason-Dixon,
CNN/Time, and Rasmussen surveys
in Nevada fall outside of the 95% confidence intervals.
| Wisconsin US Senate
|
|
Johnson |
Feingold |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Voter/Consumer |
48% |
44% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| YouGov |
52% |
46% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Rasmussen |
53% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Marist |
52% |
45% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| PPP |
53% |
44% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Actual |
52% |
47% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall
outside the 95% confidence intervals.
| Kentucky US Senate |
|
Paul |
Conway |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Rasmussen |
53% |
41% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| SurveyUSA |
52% |
43% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| YouGov |
52% |
44% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| PPP |
55% |
40% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| CN2 Politics |
46% |
39% |
0.93 |
-0.08 |
| Fox |
50% |
43% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| CNN/Time |
50% |
43% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Actual |
56% |
44% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall
outside the 95% confidence intervals.
| Connecticut US Senate |
|
McMahon |
Blumenthal |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
43% |
54% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Fox |
42% |
53% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| You Gov |
43% |
52% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Quinnipiac |
44% |
53% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
53% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Actual |
44% |
55% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
| Missouri US Senate |
|
Blunt |
Carnahan |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Missouri State |
54% |
41% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| YouGov |
54% |
42% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| Actual |
54.3% |
40.6% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
| North Carolina US Senate |
|
Burr |
Marshall |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
52% |
40% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| SurveyUSA |
53% |
38% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Actual |
55% |
43% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals. In 18 races, PPP surveys have an average accuracy rating of 0.08. In 18 races, Rasmussen
surveys (not Fox) have an average accuracy rating of 0.10. And in 15 races, YouGov surveys
have an average accuracy rating of 0.07. Fox surveys have an average accuracy rating
of 0.11 in 9 races.
| New York US Senate
|
|
DioGuardi |
Gillibrand |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| YouGov |
34% |
58% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Quinnipiac |
34% |
57% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Rasmussen |
33% |
54% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| SurveyUSA |
36% |
56% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| Siena |
37% |
57% |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| NY Times |
25% |
50% |
0.87 |
-0.14 |
| Marist |
38% |
56% |
1.18 |
0.16 |
| Actual |
35.8% |
62.0% |
|
|
None of the accuracy measures fall outside the
95% confidence intervals.
| New York US Senate |
|
Townsend |
Schumer |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Quinnipiac |
32% |
64% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Siena |
32% |
64% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| SurveyUSA |
32% |
62% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Rasmussen |
31% |
59% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Marist |
35% |
63% |
1.10 |
0.10 |
| YouGov |
34% |
60% |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| NY Times |
21% |
61% |
0.68 |
-0.38 |
| Actual |
33.0% |
65.4% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the New York Times survey falls
outside the 95% confidence interval.
| Louisiana US Senate |
|
Vitter |
Melancon |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Magellan |
52% |
35% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Clarus |
50% |
38% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| Anzalone |
48% |
45% |
0.71 |
-0.34 |
| Actual |
57% |
38% |
|
|
The accuracy measure for the Anzalone-Liszt survey falls outside the
95% confidence interval.
The following tables list
the polling accuracy
measures for 18 US Senate races with the final predictions/averages
for each race from Pollster.com
(Pollster), FiveThirtyEight (538), and RealClearPolitics.com
(RCP).
| Nevada US Senate
|
|
Angle |
Reid |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
47% |
46% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| YouGov |
49% |
47% |
1.17 |
0.16 |
| Fox |
48% |
45% |
1.20 |
0.18 |
| RCP |
48% |
45.3% |
1.19 |
0.18 |
| 538 |
50% |
47% |
1.20 |
0.18 |
| Pollster |
48.8% |
46% |
1.20 |
0.18 |
| Mason-Dixon |
49% |
45% |
1.23 |
0.20 |
| CNN/Time |
49% |
45% |
1.23 |
0.20 |
| Rasmussen |
49% |
45% |
1.23 |
0.20 |
| Actual |
44.59% |
50.24% |
|
|
| Colorado US Senate |
|
Buck |
Bennet |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| YouGov |
48% |
49% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| RBI |
42% |
43% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| PPP |
49% |
48% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| CNN/Time |
47% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| 538 |
49% |
48% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Pollster |
47.9% |
46.5% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| RCP |
49.3% |
46.3% |
1.09 |
0.08 |
| Marist |
49% |
45% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Rasmussen |
48% |
44% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| Actual |
46.89% |
47.7% |
|
|
| Illinois US Senate |
|
Kirk |
Giannoulias |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Pollster |
43.7% |
42.0% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| 538 |
49% |
48% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| Chicago Tribune |
44% |
41% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| RCP |
44.8% |
41.5% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Fox |
46% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| PPP |
46% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Liszt |
37% |
39% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| YouGov |
44% |
47% |
0.90 |
-0.11 |
| Actual |
48.2% |
46.3% |
|
|
| Pennsylvania US Senate |
|
Toomey |
Sestak |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Susquehanna |
46% |
44% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Rasmussen |
50% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Ipsos |
46% |
46% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| 538 |
52% |
48% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| CNN/Time |
49% |
45% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| YouGov |
48% |
44% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Muhlenberg |
48% |
44% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Pollster |
48.7% |
44.7% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| PPP |
51% |
46% |
1.07 |
0.06 |
| RCP |
49.5% |
45% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Quinnipiac |
50% |
45% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| YouGov |
50% |
44% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Marist |
52% |
45% |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Marshall |
48% |
40% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| Actual |
51% |
49% |
|
|
| West Virginia US Senate |
|
Raese |
Manchin |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
46% |
51% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| RCP |
46.0% |
50.5% |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
50% |
1.13 |
0.13 |
| 538 |
47% |
51% |
1.14 |
0.13 |
| Pollster |
46.1% |
49.4% |
1.15 |
0.14 |
| Fox |
48% |
46% |
1.29 |
0.25 |
| Actual |
43.41% |
53.47% |
|
|
| California US Senate |
|
Fiorina |
Boxer |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| SurveyUSA |
38% |
46% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Suffolk |
43% |
53% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Field |
41% |
49% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| CNN/Time |
45% |
50% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| RCP |
43.3% |
48.3% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Pollster |
43.9% |
49.0% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| 538 |
46% |
51% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| Fox |
44% |
48% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| PPP |
46% |
50% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| YouGov |
45% |
49% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
49% |
1.14 |
0.13 |
| Actual |
42.7% |
51.9% |
|
|
| Washington US Senate
|
|
Rossi |
Murray |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Fox |
47% |
49% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| YouGov |
47% |
50% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| 538 |
49% |
51% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| University of Washington |
45% |
49% |
0.97 |
-0.03 |
| Marist |
48% |
49% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| RCP |
48.0% |
48.3% |
1.05 |
0.04 |
| Pollster |
47.9% |
48.6% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| SurveyUSA |
47% |
47% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| Rasmussen |
48% |
47% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| PPP |
50% |
48% |
1.10 |
0.09 |
| Actual |
48.73% |
51.27% |
|
|
| Florida US Senate |
|
Rubio |
Crist |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Rasmussen |
50% |
30% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Mason-Dixon |
45% |
28% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| PPP |
47% |
30% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| RCP |
47.0% |
30.0% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Susquehanna |
48% |
31% |
0.94 |
-0.06 |
| Pollster |
45.3% |
30.7% |
0.90 |
-0.11 |
| Quinnipiac |
45% |
31% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| 538 |
45% |
32% |
0.85 |
-0.16 |
| YouGov |
46% |
34% |
0.82 |
-0.20 |
| Zogby |
40% |
33% |
0.74 |
-0.31 |
| Actual |
48.92% |
29.72% |
|
|
| Ohio US Senate |
|
Portman |
Fisher |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
57% |
39% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Pollster |
55.8% |
38.2% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Quinnipiac |
56% |
37% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| SurveyUSA |
52% |
37% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
Columbus
Dispatch |
56% |
40% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
University
Cincinnati |
60% |
39% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| 538 |
57% |
41% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| RCP |
57.5% |
37% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| YouGov |
52% |
39% |
0.91 |
-0.10 |
| Wilson |
49% |
38% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| Rasmussen |
57% |
33% |
1.18 |
0.16 |
| Actual |
57.25% |
39.0% |
|
|
| New Hampshire US Senate |
|
Ayotte |
Hodes |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| UNH |
54% |
36% |
0.92 |
-0.08 |
| RCP |
55.3% |
39.3% |
0.86 |
-0.15 |
| Rasmussen |
56% |
41% |
0.84 |
-0.18 |
| PPP |
56% |
41% |
0.84 |
-0.18 |
| Pollster |
53.4% |
39.2% |
0.84 |
-0.18 |
| 538 |
55% |
42% |
0.80 |
-0.22 |
| Actual |
60.0% |
36.8% |
|
|
| Wisconsin US Senate
|
|
Johnson |
Feingold |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| 538 |
51% |
46% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Voter/Consumer |
48% |
44% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| YouGov |
52% |
46% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Rasmussen |
53% |
46% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Marist |
52% |
45% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| RCP |
52.7% |
45.0% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Pollster |
52.9% |
45.2% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| PPP |
53% |
44% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Actual |
52% |
47% |
|
|
| Kentucky US Senate |
|
Paul |
Conway |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| RCP |
51.8% |
40.8% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Rasmussen |
53% |
41% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| 538 |
55% |
44% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| SurveyUSA |
52% |
43% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Pollster |
50.8% |
42.0% |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| YouGov |
52% |
44% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| PPP |
55% |
40% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| CN2 Politics |
46% |
39% |
0.93 |
-0.08 |
| Fox |
50% |
43% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| CNN/Time |
50% |
43% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| Actual |
56% |
44% |
|
|
| Connecticut US Senate |
|
McMahon |
Blumenthal |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
43% |
54% |
1.00 |
0.00 |
| Fox |
42% |
53% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| 538 |
44% |
54% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| You Gov |
43% |
52% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Pollster |
43.8% |
53.0% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Quinnipiac |
44% |
53% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| RCP |
44.3% |
53.0% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Rasmussen |
46% |
53% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Actual |
44% |
55% |
|
|
| Missouri US Senate |
|
Blunt |
Carnahan |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Missouri State |
54% |
41% |
0.98 |
-0.02 |
| YouGov |
54% |
42% |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| RCP |
51.7% |
41.3% |
0.94 |
-0.07 |
| Pollster |
51.1% |
41.9% |
0.91 |
-0.09 |
| 538 |
54% |
44% |
0.92 |
-0.09 |
| Actual |
54.3% |
40.6% |
|
|
| North Carolina US Senate |
|
Burr |
Marshall |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| PPP |
52% |
40% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| 538 |
55% |
42% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Pollster |
50.4% |
38.1% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| RCP |
50.3% |
37.5% |
1.05 |
0.05 |
| SurveyUSA |
53% |
38% |
1.09 |
0.09 |
| Actual |
55% |
43% |
|
|
| New York US Senate
|
|
DioGuardi |
Gillibrand |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| YouGov |
34% |
58% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Quinnipiac |
34% |
57% |
1.03 |
0.03 |
| Rasmussen |
33% |
54% |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Pollster |
35.0% |
56.4% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| SurveyUSA |
36% |
56% |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| RCP |
36.0% |
55.8% |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| Siena |
37% |
57% |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| NY Times |
25% |
50% |
0.87 |
-0.14 |
| 538 |
39% |
59% |
1.14 |
0.14 |
| Marist |
38% |
56% |
1.18 |
0.16 |
| Actual |
35.8% |
62.0% |
|
|
| New York US Senate |
|
Townsend |
Schumer |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Quinnipiac |
32% |
64% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Siena |
32% |
64% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| SurveyUSA |
32% |
62% |
1.02 |
0.02 |
| Rasmussen |
31% |
59% |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| RCP |
32.6% |
61.8% |
1.05 |
0.04 |
| 538 |
34% |
63% |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| Pollster |
33.4% |
61.4% |
1.08 |
0.08 |
| Marist |
35% |
63% |
1.10 |
0.10 |
| YouGov |
34% |
60% |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| NY Times |
21% |
61% |
0.68 |
-0.38 |
| Actual |
33.0% |
65.4% |
|
|
| Louisiana US Senate |
|
Vitter |
Melancon |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| Magellan |
52% |
35% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| 538 |
58% |
39% |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| RCP |
51.8% |
36.8% |
0.94 |
-0.06 |
| Clarus |
50% |
38% |
0.88 |
-0.13 |
| Pollster |
50.1% |
38.3% |
0.87 |
-0.14 |
| Anzalone |
48% |
45% |
0.71 |
-0.34 |
| Actual |
57% |
38% |
|
|
The absolute average accuracy is 0.07 for RealClearPolitics, 0.07 for
FiveThirtyEight, and 0.08 for Pollster.com. The absolute average
accuracy for the US Senate polls listed above is 0.08. Pollster.com had 0.00 accuracy ratings (the
best) in Illinois and Ohio. FiveThirtyEight had a 0.00 accuracy
rating in Wisconsin.
And RealClearPolitics had a 0.00 accuracy rating in Kentucky. The average rank is 4.6 for FiveThirtyEight,
4.7 for RealClearPolitics, and 5.1 for Pollster.com. As
the state tables indicate, all three aggregators
have their strengths and weaknesses. There is not, however,
a superior methodology based on
these polling accuracy results.
|
