|
2010 US House Pollster
Ratings
Here are the pollster scorecard results
for 31 US House races polled for The
Hill
using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy. The first row for each district identifies the
district and candidates. The second row contains the sample
size, the poll results for each
candidate, the odds ratio, and the accuracy measure. The third
row lists the actual results.
|
|
|
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
| MS-1 |
Childer |
Nunnelee |
|
|
| 603 |
39 |
44 |
1.19 |
0.17 |
| Actual |
41 |
55 |
|
| AZ-5 |
Mitchell |
Schweikert |
|
|
| 408 |
42 |
45 |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| Actual |
43 |
52 |
|
| WI-8 |
Kagen |
Ribble |
|
|
| 415 |
44 |
45 |
1.20 |
0.18 |
| Actual |
45 |
55 |
|
| IL-14 |
Foster |
Hultgren |
|
|
| 406 |
42 |
43 |
1.11 |
0.10 |
| Actual |
45 |
51 |
|
| IL-17 |
Hare |
Schilling |
|
|
| 417 |
38 |
45 |
1.04 |
0.04 |
| Actual |
43 |
53 |
|
| PA-8 |
Murphy |
Fitzpatrick |
|
|
| 398 |
46 |
43 |
1.26 |
0.23 |
| Actual |
46 |
54 |
|
| PA-10 |
Carney |
Marino |
|
|
| 406 |
41 |
41 |
1.22 |
0.20 |
| Actual |
45 |
55 |
|
| NH-1 |
Shea-Porter |
Guinta |
|
|
| 407 |
42 |
47 |
1.12 |
0.12 |
| Actual |
43 |
54 |
|
| NY-19 |
Hall |
Hayworth |
|
|
| 416 |
43 |
43 |
1.13 |
0.12 |
| Actual |
47 |
53 |
|
| NY-24 |
Arcuri |
Hanna |
|
|
| 400 |
47 |
37 |
1.43 |
0.36 |
| Actual |
47 |
53 |
|
| TN-8 |
Herron |
Fincher |
|
|
| 416 |
37 |
47 |
1.19 |
0.17 |
| Actual |
39 |
59 |
|
| WA-3 |
Heck |
Herrera |
|
|
| 400 |
40 |
42 |
1.07 |
0.07 |
| Actual |
47 |
53 |
|
| AR-1 |
Causey |
Crawford |
|
|
| 409 |
34 |
46 |
0.89 |
-0.11 |
| Actual |
43 |
52 |
|
| WI-7 |
Lassa |
Duffy |
|
|
| 400 |
35 |
44 |
0.94 |
-0.06 |
| Actual |
44 |
52 |
|
| IL-10 |
Seals |
Dold |
|
|
| 405 |
49 |
37 |
1.38 |
0.32 |
| Actual |
49 |
51 |
|
| HI-1 |
Hanabusa |
Djou |
|
|
| 406 |
41 |
45 |
0.81 |
-0.21 |
| Actual |
53 |
47 |
|
| PA-7 |
Lentz |
Meehan |
|
|
| 405 |
39 |
40 |
1.22 |
0.20 |
| Actual |
44 |
55 |
|
| NH-2 |
Kuster |
Bass |
|
|
| 407 |
42 |
45 |
0.95 |
-0.05 |
| Actual |
47 |
48 |
|
| MI-1 |
McDowell |
Benishek |
|
|
| 401 |
39 |
42 |
1.18 |
0.16 |
| Actual |
41 |
52 |
|
| WV-1 |
Oliverio |
McKinley |
|
|
| 405 |
42 |
39 |
1.08 |
0.07 |
| Actual |
50 |
50 |
|
| AZ-1 |
Kirkpatrick |
Gosar |
|
|
| 403 |
39 |
46 |
0.99 |
-0.01 |
| Actual |
43 |
50 |
|
| CO-4 |
Markey |
Gardner |
|
|
| 391 |
41 |
44 |
1.20 |
0.19 |
| Actual |
41 |
53 |
|
| IL-11 |
Halvorson |
Kinzinger |
|
|
| 401 |
31 |
49 |
0.84 |
-0.18 |
| Actual |
43 |
57 |
|
| MD-1 |
Kratovil |
Harris |
|
|
| 400 |
40 |
43 |
1.25 |
0.22 |
| Actual |
41 |
55 |
|
| MI-7 |
Schauer |
Walberg |
|
|
| 404 |
41 |
41 |
1.11 |
0.11 |
| Actual |
45 |
50 |
|
| NV-3 |
Titus |
Heck |
|
|
| 403 |
44 |
47 |
0.96 |
-0.04 |
| Actual |
47 |
48 |
|
| NM-2 |
Teague |
Pearce |
|
|
| 401 |
42 |
46 |
1.12 |
0.11 |
| Actual |
45 |
55 |
|
| OH-15 |
Kilroy |
Stivers |
|
|
| 404 |
38 |
47 |
1.21 |
0.19 |
| Actual |
38 |
57 |
|
| PA-3 |
Dahlkemper |
Kelly |
|
|
| 401 |
36 |
49 |
0.94 |
-0.07 |
| Actual |
44 |
56 |
|
| VA-2 |
Nye |
Rigell |
|
|
| 397 |
36 |
42 |
1.06 |
0.05 |
| Actual |
43 |
53 |
|
| VA-5 |
Perriello |
Hurt |
|
|
| 403 |
44 |
45 |
1.06 |
0.06 |
| Actual |
47 |
51 |
|
The accuracy measures for the surveys in PA-8,
NY-24, and IL-10 fall outside the 95% confidence intervals. The average accuracy measure for the 31 surveys
is 0.14.
|
