|
2008 US Presidential
Election
Pollster
Ratings The following table
lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the November 4, 2008 US
Presidential election using the measure
of polling accuracy
proposed
by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.000 indicates
that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the
closer to 0.000, the better).
| 2008 Presidential Election
|
|
Obama |
McCain |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Fox News |
50% |
43% |
1.00 |
0.003 |
| CNN |
53% |
46% |
0.99 |
-0.006 |
| McClatchy/Ipsos |
53% |
46% |
0.99 |
-0.006 |
| ARG |
53% |
45% |
1.02 |
0.016 |
| IBD |
52% |
44% |
1.02 |
0.019 |
| Harris Interactive |
52% |
44% |
1.02 |
0.019 |
| YouGov |
51% |
45% |
0.98 |
-0.022 |
| NBC/WSJ |
51% |
43% |
1.02 |
0.023 |
| Rasmussen |
52% |
46% |
0.98 |
-0.025 |
| Pew |
52% |
46% |
0.98 |
-0.025 |
| ABC News |
53% |
44% |
1.04 |
0.039 |
| Democracy Corps |
53% |
44% |
1.04 |
0.039 |
| GWU |
49% |
44% |
0.96 |
-0.040 |
| Hotline |
50% |
45% |
0.96 |
-0.042 |
| Marist |
52% |
43% |
1.04 |
0.042 |
| Daily Kos |
51% |
46% |
0.96 |
-0.044 |
| GWU-D |
52% |
47% |
0.95 |
-0.046 |
| CBS News |
51% |
42% |
1.05 |
0.047 |
| Gallup/USA Today |
55% |
44% |
1.08 |
0.076 |
| Zogby |
54% |
43% |
1.08 |
0.080 |
| GWU-R |
50% |
48% |
0.90 |
-0.107 |
|
| Actual |
52.92% |
45.66% |
|
|
The accuracy measures for all nineteen polls
fall
within the 95% confidence intervals. There are no differences
between pollsters at the
95% confidence interval except for the Gallup/USA Today poll
and the YouGov poll. Both polls had large sample sizes - the Gallup/USA Today poll had
2,472 interviews and the YouGov poll had 31,148 interviews. |
