American Research Group, Inc.

New Hampshire

Presidential primary preference:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
Feb
2-3
Feb
3-4
Feb
4-5
Feb
5-6
Feb
6-7
Feb
7-8
Bush 8% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9%
Carson 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%
Christie 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 8%
Cruz 12% 12% 9% 9% 10% 10%
Fiorina 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Gilmore - - - - - -
Kasich 13% 14% 17% 17% 16% 17%
Rubio 14% 15% 16% 17% 16% 14%
Trump 34% 36% 34% 31% 30% 33%
Other * * * * * *
Unecided 7% 6% 6% 8% 9% 6%
Read this table down

*= Less than 1/2 of 1%  - = None  ni = Not included

 

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
Dec
2015
Jan
7-10
Jan
15-18
Jan
23-25
Jan
29-31
Bush 7% 8% 8% 8% 9%
Carson 6% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Christie 12% 10% 9% 8% 6%
Cruz 10% 9% 9% 12% 10%
Fiorina 5% 3% 2% 3% 2%
Gilmore - - - - -
Huckabee * 1% 1% 1% -
Kasich 13% 14% 20% 17% 16%
Pataki * ni ni ni ni
Paul 4% 4% 5% 2% 2%
Rubio 15% 14% 10% 9% 11%
Santorum * 1% 1% 1% 1%
Trump 21% 25% 27% 31% 34%
Other * * 1% 1% 1%
Undecided 5% 8% 7% 6% 6%
Read this table down

*= Less than 1/2 of 1%  - = None  ni = Not included

 

Preference by party registration:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
Republicans (59%) Undeclared (41%)
Bush 12% 7%
Carson 1% 2%
Christie 9% 6%
Cruz 10 10%
Fiorina 4% 3%
Gilmore - -
Kasich 15% 20%
Rubio 13% 16%
Trump 32% 34%
Other * *
Undecided 6% 6%

 

Preference by age:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
18 to 49 (39%) 50 and older (61%)
Bush 7% 11%
Carson 2% 1%
Christie 7% 8%
Cruz 12% 8%
Fiorina 3% 3%
Gilmore - -
Kasich 15% 18%
Rubio 15% 13%
Trump 36% 31%
Other * *
Undecided 6% 6%

 

Preference by sex:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
Male (55%) Female (45%)
Bush 8% 11%
Carson 1% 1%
Christie 8% 8%
Cruz 12% 7%
Fiorina 2% 5%
Gilmore - -
Kasich 16% 18%
Rubio 14% 14%
Trump 36% 30%
Other * *
Undecided 6% 6%


Preference by likely to vote:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
Definite - 10 (91%) Probably - 7-9 (9%)
Bush 9% 14%
Carson 1% 3%
Christie 8% 3%
Cruz 10% 5%
Fiorina 3% 4%
Gilmore - -
Kasich 17% 20%
Rubio 14% 16%
Trump 33% 31%
Other * *
Undecided 6% 4%

 

Preference by type of contact:

New Hampshire
Likely Republican
Primary Voters
Landline (61%) Cell phone/other (39%)
Bush 10% 9%
Carson 2% 1%
Christie 8% 8%
Cruz 10% 10%
Fiorina 3% 3%
Gilmore - -
Kasich 17% 17%
Rubio 14% 14%
Trump 32% 35%
Other * *
Undecided 7% 5%

 


About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 418 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican primary voters living in New Hampshire (248 Republicans and 170 undeclared voters (independents)).

Sample Dates: February 7-8, 2016

Margin of Error: 5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the 2016 Republican presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2016 Republican presidential preference primary and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2016 Republican presidential preference primary, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2016 Republican presidential preference primary?

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