American Research Group, Inc.

Iowa

Presidential caucus preference:

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Jan 6-10 Jan 21-24
Bush 3% 3%
Carson 8% 7%
Christie 6% 4%
Cruz 25% 26%
Fiorina 1% 1%
Gilmore - -
Huckabee 2% 2%
Kasich 3% 3%
Paul 4% 4%
Rubio 10% 11%
Santorum 2% 1%
Trump 29% 33%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 5% 5%
Read this table down

*= Less than 1/2 of 1%  - = None

 

Preference by party registration:

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Republicans (80%) No party (20%)
Bush 4% 2%
Carson 7% 5%
Christie 4% 5%
Cruz 26% 24%
Fiorina 1% 2%
Gilmore - -
Huckabee 1% 2%
Kasich 3% 3%
Paul 3% 7%
Rubio 11% 11%
Santorum 1% -
Trump 33% 33%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 5% 5%

 

Preference by age:

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
18 to 49 (44%) 50 and older (56%)
Bush 3% 5%
Carson 6% 7%
Christie 3% 5%
Cruz 27% 25%
Fiorina 2% 1%
Gilmore - -
Huckabee 1% 1%
Kasich 3% 3%
Paul 5% 3%
Rubio 9% 12%
Santorum 1% 1%
Trump 34% 32%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 5% 4%

 

Preference by sex:

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Male (55%) Female (45%)
Bush 3% 5%
Carson 7% 6%
Christie 3% 5%
Cruz 27% 24%
Fiorina 1% 2%
Gilmore - -
Huckabee 1% 1%
Kasich 3% 4%
Paul 5% 3%
Rubio 10% 11%
Santorum 1% 1%
Trump 34% 31%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 4% 5%


Preference by likely to vote:

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Definite - 10 (87%) Probably - 7-9 (13%)
Bush 4% 4%
Carson 7% 5%
Christie 5% 5%
Cruz 27% 16%
Fiorina 1% 1%
Gilmore - -
Huckabee 1% 1%
Kasich 3% 3%
Paul 4% 4%
Rubio 11% 12%
Santorum 1% 1%
Trump 32% 40%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 3% 7%

 

Preference by type of contact:

Iowa
Likely Republican
Caucus-Goers
Landline (63%) Cell phone/other (37%)
Bush 4% 3%
Carson 7% 7%
Christie 5% 5%
Cruz 26% 25%
Fiorina 1% 1%
Gilmore - -
Huckabee 1% 1%
Kasich 3% 3%
Paul 3% 5%
Rubio 12% 10%
Santorum 1% *
Trump 32% 34%
Other 1% 1%
Undecided 4% 5%

 


About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 400 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus-goers living in Iowa (321 Republicans and 79 no party voters (independents)).

Sample Dates: January 21-24, 2016

Margin of Error: 5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question Wording:

If the 2016 Republican presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote?

Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will definitely not vote in the 2016 Republican presidential caucus and 10 meaning that you will definitely vote in the 2016 Republican presidential caucus, what number would you give as your chance of voting in the 2016 Republican presidential caucus?

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