South Carolina
Presidential Primary Preference:
| South Carolina |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Jan 19-20
2012 |
|
|
| Gingrich |
40% |
| Paul |
18% |
| Romney |
26% |
| Santorum |
13% |
| Other |
1% |
| Undecided |
2% |
Newt Gingrich leads the South
Carolina
Republican
presidential primary with 40% and is followed by Mitt
Romney with 26%, Ron Paul with 18%, and Rick Santorum
with
13%.
Gingrich has gained 7 percentage points since
the survey conducted January 17-18 and Romney has lost 6 percentage points since that survey.
Gingrich leads Romney 47% to 24% among self-identified
Republicans, followed by Paul and Santorum with 14% each. Paul leads
among
independents
and Democrats with 33%, followed by Romney
with 31%, Gingrich with 18%, and Santorum with 10%.
Gingrich leads among those likely primary
voters
saying they are supporters of the Tea Party with 48%, followed
by Romney with 19%, Santorum with 16%, and Paul with 14%. Gingrich
leads with 33% among those saying they are
not supporters of the Tea Party or
are undecided about the Tea Party, followed by Romney with
31%, and Paul with 22%. Gingrich leads Romney among men
38% to 25%, followed
by Paul with 21%. Among
women, Gingrich leads Romney 42% to 26%, followed by Paul
with 16%, and Santorum with 13%.
Gingrich leads Romney 43% to 24% among likely
Republican primary voters saying they will definitely vote.
Comparison to Past Surveys:
| South Carolina |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Apr
2011 |
Jul
2011 |
Oct
2011 |
Nov
2011 |
Jan 4-5
2012 |
Jan 11-12
2012 |
Jan 17-18
2012 |
Jan 19-20
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bachmann |
5% |
13% |
5% |
3% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Barbour |
2% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Cain |
1% |
10% |
26% |
10% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Daniels |
1% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Gingrich |
9% |
3% |
8% |
33% |
24% |
25% |
33% |
40% |
| Giuliani |
4% |
6% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huckabee |
20% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huntsman |
- |
- |
- |
3% |
2% |
1% |
ni |
ni |
| Johnson |
- |
* |
- |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Karger |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Palin |
10% |
16% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Pataki |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Rand Paul |
2% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Ron Paul |
1% |
2% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
20% |
19% |
18% |
| Pawlenty |
2% |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Perry |
ni |
6% |
15% |
8% |
2% |
9% |
4% |
ni |
| Roemer |
- |
2% |
- |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Romney |
18% |
25% |
25% |
22% |
31% |
29% |
32% |
26% |
| Santorum |
1% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
24% |
7% |
9% |
13% |
| Trump |
13% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Other/Undecided |
11% |
15% |
13% |
12% |
8% |
9% |
3% |
3% |
Preference
by party:
| South Carolina |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Republicans (76%) |
Independents (24%) |
|
|
|
| Gingrich |
47% |
18% |
| Paul |
14% |
33% |
| Romney |
24% |
31% |
| Santorum |
14% |
10% |
| Other |
- |
4% |
| Undecided |
1% |
4% |
Preference by Tea Party
support:
| South Carolina |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Supporter (46%) |
Not/Undecided (54%) |
|
|
|
| Gingrich |
48% |
33% |
| Paul |
14% |
22% |
| Romney |
19% |
31% |
| Santorum |
16% |
11% |
| Other |
- |
2% |
| Undecided |
3% |
1% |
Preference by Sex:
| South Carolina |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Male (52%) |
Female (48%) |
|
|
|
| Gingrich |
38% |
42% |
| Paul |
21% |
16% |
| Romney |
25% |
26% |
| Santorum |
13% |
13% |
| Other |
1% |
1% |
| Undecided |
2% |
2% |
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The
American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since
1985. Sample
Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample
of likely Republican primary voters living in South Carolina (458 Republicans, 137
independents, and 5 Democrats). An "*" in the
tables indicates responses of less than 1/2 of 1 percent. Sample
Dates: January 19-20, 2012 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage
points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split. Question Wording:
If the 2012 Republican presidential
primary were
being held today between (names rotated) Newt Gingrich, Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and
Rick Santorum, for whom would you
vote?
Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of
the Tea Party movement, or not?
Do you consider yourself to be an evangelical
or born-again Christian, or not? Using a scale of 1 to
10, with 1 meaning that you will
definitely not vote in the
2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning
that
you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential
primary, what number would
you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican
presidential primary?
|
