Florida
Presidential Primary Preference:
| Florida |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Jan 29-30
2012 |
|
|
| Gingrich |
31% |
| Paul |
9% |
| Romney |
43% |
| Santorum |
13% |
| Other |
1% |
| Undecided |
3% |
Mitt Romney continues to lead the
Florida Republican presidential primary. Romney leads with
43%, followed by Newt Gingrich with
31%, Rick Santorum with 13%, and Ron Paul with 9%.
In a similar survey conducted January 27-28,
2012, Romney was at 43% and Gingrich was at 32%.
A total of 36% of Republican primary voters
say that they have already voted by absentee ballot or in early
voting. Of this group of voters,
Romney leads with 51%, followed by Gingrich with 29%, Santorum
with 12%, and Paul with 8%. Among
the 64% of the remaining likely Republican primary voters,
Romney leads with 39%, followed
by Gingrich with 32%, Santorum with 14%, and Paul with 10%.
Based on the votes already cast through absentee
ballots and early voting and assuming Romney holds his vote, Gingrich would need to receive
51% of the votes cast on election day to tie Romney at 43%. That represents all of the undecided
vote plus Ron Paul's expected vote on election day or 71% of Santorum's expected vote on election
day. Gingrich
leads with 38% among
likely Republican
primary voters saying they are supporters of the Tea Party,
followed by Romney with 35% and
Santorum with 17%. Among likely primary voters saying they
are
not supporters of the Tea Party
or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 52%,
followed by Gingrich with 23%, Paul with 15%, and Santorum
with 8%.
Romney leads among men with 37%, followed
by Gingrich with 33%, and Paul and Santorum with 12% each. Romney leads with 49%
among women, followed by Gingrich
with 26% and Santorum with 14%.
Comparison to Past Surveys:
| Florida |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
May
2011 |
Jul 2011 |
Oct 2011 |
Nov 2011 |
Jan 13-15
2012 |
Jan 23-24
2012 |
Jan 27-28
2012 |
Jan 29-30
2012 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bachmann |
5% |
15% |
3% |
1% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Cain |
4% |
11% |
34% |
10% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Daniels |
3% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Gingrich |
11% |
3% |
11% |
50% |
25% |
34% |
32% |
31% |
| Giuliani |
6% |
7% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huckabee |
14% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huntsman |
- |
1% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Johnson |
- |
- |
- |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Palin |
9% |
13% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Ron Paul |
1% |
4% |
4% |
2% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| Pawlenty |
1% |
1% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Perry |
ni |
16% |
5% |
2% |
3% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Roemer |
- |
- |
1% |
1% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Romney |
26% |
15% |
28% |
19% |
42% |
41% |
43% |
43% |
| Santorum |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
13% |
| Trump |
7% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Other |
1% |
1% |
- |
1% |
1% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
| Undecided |
11% |
12% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
6% |
5% |
3% |
Preference
by absentee/early voting:
| Florida |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Voted (36%) |
Not voted yet (64%) |
|
|
|
| Gingrich |
29% |
32% |
| Paul |
8% |
10% |
| Romney |
51% |
39% |
| Santorum |
12% |
14% |
| Other |
- |
1% |
| Undecided |
- |
4% |
Preference by Tea Party
support:
| Florida |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Supporter (53%) |
Not/Undecided (47%) |
|
|
|
| Gingrich |
38% |
23% |
| Paul |
4% |
15% |
| Romney |
35% |
52% |
| Santorum |
17% |
8% |
| Other |
1% |
1% |
| Undecided |
5% |
1% |
Preference by Sex:
| Florida |
Likely Republican
Primary Voters |
Male (51%) |
Female (49%) |
|
|
|
| Gingrich |
33% |
29% |
| Paul |
12% |
6% |
| Romney |
37% |
49% |
| Santorum |
12% |
14% |
| Other |
1% |
1% |
| Undecided |
5% |
1% |
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The
American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since
1985. Sample
Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample
of likely Republican primary voters living in Florida (600 registered Republicans). Sample
Dates: January 29-30, 2012 Margin of Error: ±
4 percentage
points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split. An "*" in the tables indicates responses of less than 1/2
of 1 percent. Question Wording:
If the 2012 Republican presidential preference
primary were
being held today between (names rotated) Newt Gingrich, Ron
Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum,
for whom would you
vote?
Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of
the Tea Party movement, or not? Using a scale of 1 to
10, with 1 meaning that you will
definitely not vote in the
2012 Republican presidential primary and 10 meaning
that
you will definitely vote in the 2012 Republican presidential
primary, what number would
you give as your chance of voting in the 2012 Republican
presidential primary?
|
