Iowa
Presidential Caucus Preference:
| Iowa |
| Likely Republican Caucus Goers |
Nov 10-14 |
Nov 26-29 |
Dec 16-19 |
Dec 20-23 |
Dec 26-28 |
Dec 31-Jan 2 |
|
| Giuliani |
11% |
9% |
13% |
14% |
6% |
8% |
| Huckabee |
24% |
27% |
28% |
23% |
23% |
29% |
| Hunter |
1% |
- |
- |
2% |
2% |
4% |
| Keyes |
- |
- |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
| McCain |
10% |
9% |
20% |
17% |
11% |
11% |
| Paul |
3% |
3% |
4% |
10% |
6% |
6% |
| Romney |
26% |
28% |
17% |
21% |
32% |
24% |
| Tancredo |
1% |
1% |
1% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Thompson |
11% |
14% |
5% |
3% |
7% |
13% |
| Undecided |
13% |
9% |
11% |
8% |
11% |
4% |
- 24% of likely caucus participants are undecided (4%) or say they could switch
candidates between now and the straw poll on January 3 (20%).
- 76% of those saying they support Romney say their support is definite.
- 67% of those saying they support McCain say their support is definite.
- 73% of those saying they support Thompson say their support is definite.
- 85% of those saying they support Huckabee say their support is definite.
- Among
men, Huckabee is at 24%, Romney 24%, McCain
13%, and Thompson 13%.
- Among women, Huckabee is at 34%, Romney 24%, and Thompson 13%.
| Iowa |
| Likely Republican
Caucus Goers |
Dec
06 |
Jan 07 |
Feb 07 |
Mar 07 |
Apr 07 |
May 07 |
Jun 07 |
Jul 07 |
Aug 07 |
Sep 07 |
Oct 07 |
|
| Brownback |
1% |
1% |
2% |
- |
1% |
3% |
3% |
1% |
- |
2% |
ni |
| Gilmore |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
1% |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Gingrich |
18% |
16% |
16% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
4% |
7% |
5% |
ni |
| Giuliani |
28% |
27% |
31% |
29% |
19% |
23% |
18% |
22% |
17% |
21% |
16% |
| Hagel |
6% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huckabee |
1% |
2% |
1% |
- |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
14% |
4% |
19% |
| Hunter |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
- |
| Keyes |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
1% |
- |
| McCain |
26% |
22% |
23% |
29% |
26% |
25% |
13% |
17% |
5% |
11% |
14% |
| Pataki |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Paul |
ni |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
| Romney |
6% |
11% |
8% |
10% |
14% |
16% |
25% |
21% |
27% |
22% |
27% |
| Tancredo |
ni |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
- |
1% |
2% |
| F Thompson |
ni |
ni |
ni |
12% |
13% |
6% |
14% |
13% |
13% |
16% |
8% |
| T Thompson |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Undecided |
14% |
15% |
17% |
11% |
13% |
10% |
14% |
15% |
15% |
13% |
13% |
Preference by party:
| Iowa |
| Likely Republican Caucus Goers |
Republicans (89%) |
Independents (11%) |
|
| Giuliani |
9% |
- |
| Huckabee |
29% |
31% |
| Hunter |
4% |
- |
| Keyes |
1% |
- |
| McCain |
9% |
25% |
| Paul |
5% |
14% |
| Romney |
24% |
27% |
| Thompson |
15% |
- |
| Undecided |
4% |
3% |
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The
American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since
1985. Sample
Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample
of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (535 Republicans and 65 no party
(independent) voters). Sample
Dates: December 31, 2007-January 2, 2008 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage
points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split. Incidence of Likely Republican Caucus Participation: 8.6% of
Republican and no party voters.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Republican
presidential caucus were
being held today between (names rotated) Rudy Giuliani, Mike
Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan
Keyes, John
McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson,
for
whom would you vote?
Would you say that you definitely plan to participate
in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus, that you might
participate in the 2008 Republican presidential
caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008
Republican
presidential caucus?
|
