Iowa
Presidential Caucus Preference:
| Iowa |
| Likely Democratic
Caucus Goers |
Nov 10-14 |
Nov 26-29 |
Dec 16-19 |
Dec 20-23 |
Dec 26-28 |
Dec 31- Jan 2 |
|
| Biden |
5% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
5% |
8% |
| Clinton |
27% |
25% |
29% |
34% |
31% |
34% |
| Dodd |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
| Edwards |
20% |
23% |
18% |
20% |
24% |
21% |
| Gravel |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
| Kucinich |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
| Obama |
21% |
27% |
25% |
19% |
24% |
25% |
| Richardson |
12% |
4% |
7% |
5% |
5% |
6% |
| Undecided |
10% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
7% |
2% |
- 12% of likely caucus participants are undecided (2%) or say that they could switch
candidates between now and the January 3 caucus (10%).
- 84% of those saying they support Clinton say their support is definite.
- 93% of those saying they support Edwards say their support is definite.
- 97% of those saying they support Obama say their support is definite.
- Among
men, Clinton is at 29%, Edwards 18%, and Obama 26%.
- Among women, Clinton is at 38%, Edwards 23%, and Obama 24%.
| Iowa |
| Likely Democratic
Caucus Goers |
Dec
06 |
Jan 07 |
Feb 07 |
Mar 07 |
Apr 07 |
May 07 |
Jun 07 |
Jul 07 |
Aug 07 |
Sep 07 |
Oct 07 |
|
| Biden |
2% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
6% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
| Clark |
1% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
- |
1% |
1% |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Clinton |
31% |
35% |
31% |
34% |
23% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
28% |
30% |
32% |
| Dodd |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
| Edwards |
20% |
18% |
27% |
33% |
27% |
25% |
29% |
21% |
20% |
19% |
15% |
| Gravel |
1% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
1% |
1% |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Kerry |
2% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Kucinich |
5% |
2% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
4% |
1% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
| Obama |
10% |
14% |
23% |
16% |
19% |
11% |
13% |
15% |
23% |
24% |
22% |
| Richardson |
1% |
1% |
1% |
1% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
13% |
13% |
10% |
7% |
| Vilsack |
17% |
12% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Undecided |
8% |
13% |
14% |
10% |
16% |
14% |
14% |
15% |
11% |
13% |
16% |
Preference by party:
| Iowa |
| Likely Democratic
Caucus Goers |
Democrats (83%) |
No party (17%) |
|
| Biden |
6% |
15% |
| Clinton |
38% |
15% |
| Dodd |
2% |
- |
| Edwards |
21% |
19% |
| Gravel |
1% |
- |
| Kucinich |
1% |
- |
| Obama |
21% |
45% |
| Richardson |
7% |
4% |
| Undecided |
3% |
2% |
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The
American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since
1985. Sample
Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample
of likely Democratic caucus goers living in Iowa (496 Democrats and 104
no party (independent) voters). Sample
Dates: December 31, 2007-January 2, 2008 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage
points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split. Incidence of Likely Democratic Caucus Participation: 12% of
Democratic and no party voters.
Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were
being held today between (names rotated) Joe Biden, Hillary
Clinton, Christopher
Dodd, John Edwards, Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama,
and Bill Richardson,
for
whom would you vote?
Would you say that you definitely plan to participate
in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might
participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential
caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008
Democratic
presidential caucus?
|
