American Research Group, Inc.
The New Hampshire Poll

September 30, 2014

2014 US Senate Ballot

The following results are based on 600 completed interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire (208 Republicans, 190 Democrats, and 202 undeclared voters). The interviews were conducted September 27 through 29, 2014.

The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording and responses:

If the 2014 election for US Senate were being held today between Scott Brown, the Republican, and Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Brown or Shaheen? (names rotated)

2014 US Senate Brown Shaheen Undecided
Likely voters 43% 53% 4%
Republicans (35%) 77% 17% 6%
Democrats (32%) 11% 87% 2%
Undeclared (33%) 39% 57% 4%
Male (50%) 49% 46% 5%
Female (50%) 38% 59% 3%
18-44 (40%) 47% 47% 6%
45 and older (60%) 41% 56% 3%
Landline (70%) 42% 53% 5%
Other (30%) 46% 52% 2%
All voters:      
September 2014 45% 47% 8%
June 2014 38% 50% 12%
March 2014 38% 50% 12%
December 2013 38% 48% 14%

When likely voters were asked to predict the eventual winner in the race, 35% say Brown, 58% say Shaheen, and 7% are undecided.

Among the 43% saying they would vote for Brown, 73% say Brown will be the eventual winner, 14% say Shaheen, and 13% are undecided.

Among the 53% saying they would vote for Shaheen, 3% say Brown will be the eventual winner, 95% say Shaheen, and 2% are undecided.

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