American Research Group, Inc.
The New Hampshire Poll

October 23, 2014

2014 US Senate Ballot

The following results are based on 600 completed interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Hampshire (205 Republicans, 187 Democrats, and 208 undeclared voters). The interviews were conducted October 19 through 22, 2014.

The theoretical margin of error for the sample of 600 likely voters is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording and responses:

If the 2014 election for US Senate were being held today between Scott Brown, the Republican, and Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat, for whom would you vote - Brown or Shaheen? (names rotated)

2014 US Senate Brown Shaheen Undecided
Likely voters 48% 49% 3%
Republicans (34%) 88% 10% 2%
Democrats (31%) 10% 86% 4%
Undeclared (35%) 43% 54% 3%
Male (49%) 52% 45% 3%
Female (51%) 44% 53% 3%
18-44 (40%) 48% 49% 3%
45 and older (60%) 48% 49% 3%
Landline (71%) 48% 49% 3%
Other (29%) 48% 49% 3%
All voters:      
September 29, 2014 43% 53% 4%
September 2014 45% 47% 8%
June 2014 38% 50% 12%
March 2014 38% 50% 12%
December 2013 38% 48% 14%

When likely voters were asked to predict the eventual winner in the race, 44% say Brown, 47% say Shaheen, and 9% are undecided.

Among the 48% saying they would vote for Brown, 84% say Brown will be the eventual winner, 7% say Shaheen, and 9% are undecided.

Among the 49% saying they would vote for Shaheen, 5% say Brown will be the eventual winner, 86% say Shaheen, and 9% are undecided.

Top  |  NH Poll  |  ARG home