American Research Group, Inc.

 

2020 New Hampshire Primary Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following tables list the accuracy of the University of New Hampshire polling in the September 8, 2020 New Hampshire primary election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2020 New Hampshire Primary - Democratic Governor
Feltes Volinsky Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
UNH 36% 38% 0.86 -0.15 
Actual 50.7% 45.9%

 

2020 New Hampshire Primary - Republican Governor
Sununu Testerman Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
UNH 82% 15% 0.57 -0.57*
Actual 89.6% 9.3%

2020 New Hampshire Primary - Republican US Senate
Bolduc Messner Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
UNH 31% 52% 0.71 -0.34*
Actual 42.2% 50.2%

2020 New Hampshire Primary - Republican CD-1
Mayberry Mower Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
UNH 17% 48% 0.79 -0.24 
Actual 26.6% 59.1%

2020 New Hampshire Primary - Republican CD-2
Blankenbeker Negron Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
UNH 20% 50% 0.50 -0.70*
Actual 38.5% 48.0%

*The accuracy measures for the Republican gubernatorial primary, the Republican US Senate primary, and the Republican CD-2 Congressional primary fall outside the respective 95% confidence intervals.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.400. 

The average absolute accuracy for the 2 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.197.

The average absolute accuracy for the 3 polls where the accuracy measures fall outside the respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.535.

As a reference:

Overall, election polls from the University of New Hampshire have been within their respective theoretical margins of error about 71% of the time, which is below average. The average absolute accuracy for the 71% of University of New Hampshire election polls that fall within their respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.120 and the average absolute accuracy for the 29% of election polls that fall outside of their respective 95% confidence intervals is 0.436.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2012 presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.

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