Iowa
Presidential Caucus Preference:
| Iowa |
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers |
Dec 29-Jan 1
2011 |
|
|
| Bachmann |
8% |
| Gingrich |
15% |
| Huntsman |
4% |
| Johnson |
- |
| Paul |
17% |
| Perry |
9% |
| Roemer |
1% |
| Romney |
22% |
| Santorum |
16% |
| Other |
1% |
| Undecided |
7% |
Mitt Romney leads the Iowa Republican Presidential
Caucus with 22%. Following closely, Ron Paul is in second place
at 17%, Rick Santorum is in third place at 16%, and Newt Gingrich is in fourth place at 15%.
In a December 19-22, 2011 survey, support for
Santorum was at 4%. In a December 26-28 survey, support for Santorum was at 11%. Among
registered Republicans,
Romney leads
with 24%, followed by Santorum at 17%, Gingrich at 16%, and
Paul at 14%. In a similar poll conducted December 26-28, Romney was at 23% among Republicans,
Gingrich was at 19%, Paul was at 12%, and Santorum was at 12%
among Republicans. Among
no party voters (independents), Paul leads with 32%, followed
by
Romney, Gingrich and Rick Perry at 13% each, and Santorum and Jon Huntsman at
10% each. Among likely Republican
caucus goers saying
they will definitely participate in the caucus, Romney leads
with 21%, followed by Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum at 16% each. Among men, Paul
leads with 21%, followed by Romney at 20%, and Gingrich and Perry at 15% each. Among women,
Romney leads with 24%, followed by Santorum at 17%, Gingrich at 16%, and Paul and Perry at
13% each.
Among
likely Republican caucus-goers saying
they are supporters of the Tea Party, Romney leads with 24%,
followed by Gingrich at 21%,
Santorum at 16%, Paul at 11%, and Perry at 10%. Among likely
caucus goers saying they are not
supporters of the Tea Party or
that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney and Paul
lead with
21% each, followed by Santorum at 16%, and Gingrich at
12%.
Comparison to Past Surveys:
| Iowa |
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers |
Apr
2011 |
Jul
2011 |
Sep
2011 |
Nov
2011 |
Dec
8-11
|
Dec
19-22 |
Dec
26-28 |
Dec 29-
Jan
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Bachmann |
9% |
21% |
15% |
6% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
| Barbour |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Cain |
- |
2% |
6% |
6% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Daniels |
4% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Gingrich |
12% |
8% |
8% |
27% |
22% |
19% |
17% |
15% |
| Giuliani |
8% |
2% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huckabee |
18% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Huntsman |
- |
3% |
1% |
3% |
5% |
6% |
6% |
4% |
| Johnson |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
- |
| Karger |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Palin |
4% |
11% |
4% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Pataki |
- |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Rand Paul |
4% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Ron Paul |
3% |
14% |
12% |
16% |
17% |
21% |
16% |
17% |
| Pawlenty |
1% |
2% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Perry |
ni |
2% |
14% |
5% |
13% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Roemer |
- |
- |
1% |
- |
- |
1% |
1% |
1% |
| Romney |
17% |
18% |
21% |
20% |
17% |
20% |
22% |
22% |
| Santorum |
2% |
5% |
2% |
6% |
7% |
4% |
11% |
16% |
| Trump |
10% |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
ni |
| Other/Undecided |
8% |
12% |
16% |
11% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
Preference by party:
| Iowa |
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers |
Republicans (82%) |
Independents (18%) |
|
|
|
| Bachmann |
9% |
4% |
| Gingrich |
16% |
13% |
| Huntsman |
3% |
10% |
| Johnson |
- |
- |
| Paul |
14% |
32% |
| Perry |
8% |
13% |
| Roemer |
1% |
- |
| Romney |
24% |
13% |
| Santorum |
17% |
10% |
| Other |
1% |
- |
| Undecided |
7% |
5% |
Preference by Tea Party
support:
| Iowa |
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers |
Supporter (40%) |
Not/Undecided (60%) |
|
|
|
| Bachmann |
9% |
8% |
| Gingrich |
21% |
12% |
| Huntsman |
1% |
6% |
| Johnson |
- |
- |
| Paul |
11% |
21% |
| Perry |
10% |
8% |
| Roemer |
- |
1% |
| Romney |
24% |
21% |
| Santorum |
16% |
16% |
| Other |
- |
1% |
| Undecided |
8% |
6% |
Preference by Likely to
Vote:
| Iowa |
Likely Republican
Caucus Goers |
Definite - 10 (76%) |
Probably 7-9 (24%) |
|
|
|
| Bachmann |
9% |
5% |
| Gingrich |
16% |
14% |
| Huntsman |
5% |
2% |
| Johnson |
- |
- |
| Paul |
16% |
21% |
| Perry |
9% |
9% |
| Roemer |
1% |
- |
| Romney |
21% |
25% |
| Santorum |
16% |
15% |
| Other |
1% |
- |
| Undecided |
6% |
9% |
About this Survey -
Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc. The
American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since
1985. Sample
Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample
of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (491 Republicans, 98 no party
(independent) voters, 10 Democrats, and 1 new voter). Sample
Dates: December 29, 2011-January 1, 2012 Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage
points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split. Question Wording:
If the 2012 Republican presidential caucus were
being held today between (names rotated) Michele Bachmann,
Newt Gingrich, Jon
Huntsman, Gary Johnson, Ron Paul,
Rick Perry, Charles Roemer, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum,
for
whom would you vote?
Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of
the Tea Party movement, or not? Using a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 meaning that you will
definitely not participate in the
2012 Republican presidential caucus and 10 meaning that
you will definitely participate in the 2012 Republican presidential caucus, what number would
you give as your chance of participating in the 2012 Republican
presidential caucus?
|
