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2017 Virginia Gubernatorial Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the November 7, 2017 Virginia gubernatorial election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
| 2017 Virginia Governor |
|
Northam |
Gillespie |
Odds
Ratio |
Accuracy |
|
| Quinnipiac |
51% |
42% |
1.01 |
0.01 |
| Christopher Newport Univ |
51% |
45% |
0.95 |
-0.06 |
| Fox News |
48% |
43% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| Gravis |
48% |
43% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| Washington Post |
49% |
44% |
0.93 |
-0.07 |
| NYT/Sienna |
43% |
40% |
0.90 |
-0.11 |
| Emerson |
49% |
46% |
0.89 |
-0.12 |
| Monmouth |
47% |
45% |
0.87 |
-0.14 |
| Polling Company |
47% |
46% |
0.85 |
-0.16* |
| Trafalgar |
49% |
48% |
0.85 |
-0.16* |
| Rasmussen |
45% |
45% |
0.83 |
-0.18* |
| Roanoke College |
47% |
47% |
0.83 |
-0.18* |
| Hampton Univ |
33% |
41% |
0.67 |
-0.40* |
|
| Actual |
53.86% |
44.96% |
|
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*The accuracy measures for the Polling Company poll (sample size of
800), the Trafalgar poll (sample size
of 1,200), the Rasmussen poll (sample size of 875), the
Roanoke College poll (sample size of 781), and the Hampton University
poll (sample size of 750) fall outside the 95% confidence intervals.
The accuracy measures for the other 8 polls fall within the
95% confidence intervals.
The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.133. The average absolute accuracy for the 8 polls where the accuracy measures fall within the respective 95% confidence
intervals is 0.081. In the 2013 Virginia gubernatorial race, the average absolute accuracy for ten polls was 0.116.
The average absolute accuracy for the 8 polls in 2013 where the
accuracy measures fell within the respective 95% confidence
intervals was 0.085.
As a reference: The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2016
presidential election was 0.070. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the
2012
presidential election was 0.055. The average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2008 presidential election was 0.037.
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