2017 United Kingdom General Election Pollster Ratings
The following table lists the
accuracy of pollsters in the June 8, 2017 United Kingdom general election using the measure of polling
accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.
An accuracy measure of 0.00
indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds
ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).
2017 UK General Election 

Conservative 
Labor 
Odds
Ratio 
Accuracy 

Survation

41% 
40% 
0.97 
0.04 
SurveyMonkey 
39% 
35% 
0.05 
0.05* 
Kantar Public 
43% 
38% 
1.07 
0.06 
Qriously 
39% 
41% 
0.90 
0.11* 
YouGov 
42% 
35% 
1.13 
0.12* 
Opinium 
43% 
36% 
1.13 
0.12* 
Ipsos MORI 
44% 
36% 
1.15 
0.14* 
Panelbase 
44% 
36% 
1.15 
0.14* 
ComRes 
44% 
34% 
1.22 
0.20* 
ICM 
46% 
34% 
1.27 
0.24* 
BMG 
46% 
33% 
1.31 
0.27* 

Actual 
42.4% 
40.0% 


*The accuracy measures for nine of the eleven
polls fall outside their
respective 95% confidence intervals. While the SurveyMonkey poll
has an accuracy measure of 0.05, the accuracy measure is greater than
what would be expected from sampling error with a sample size of 11,853. The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.137.
As a comparison, the average absolute accuracy for all polls in 2016 EU referendum was 0.143 and the average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2014 Scotland independence referendum was 0.126. The
average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016
US presidential election was 0.070 and the average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2017 French presidential election was 0.194.
