American Research Group, Inc.

 

2017 French Presidential Election Pollster Ratings

 

The following table lists the accuracy of pollsters in the May 7, 2017 French presidential election using the measure of polling accuracy proposed by Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy.

An accuracy measure of 0.00 indicates that the odds ratio of the survey results matches the odds ratio of the actual results (the closer to 0.00, the better).

 

2017 French Presidential Election
Macron Le Pen Odds
Ratio
Accuracy
Ipsos
63% 37% 0.87 -0.14*
Ifop-Fiducial 63% 37% 0.87 -0.14*
Harris 62% 38% 0.84 -0.18*
OpinionWay 62% 38% 0.84 -0.18*
Odoxa 62% 38% 0.84 -0.18*
Elabe 62% 38% 0.84 -0.18*
BVA 60% 40% 0.77 -0.26*
Kantar Sofres 59% 41% 0.74 -0.30*
Actual 66.1% 33.9%

 

*The accuracy measures for all eight polls fall outside their respective 95% confidence intervals.

While all polls had Macron winning, all polls had errors beyond sampling error.

The average absolute accuracy for all polls is 0.194.

As a comparison, the average absolute accuracy for all polls in the 2016 US presidential election was 0.070.

All polls understated support for Macron.


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