American Research Group, Inc.
The New Hampshire Poll

December 18, 2003

Dean Holds Lead As Kerry Fights Back for Second Place
Among Democrats in New Hampshire

While a barrage of negative attacks on former Vermont Governor Howard Dean has increased his unfavorable rating from 7% to 19% in two weeks, the attacks have not had any impact on Dean's favorability (72%) and his lead in ballot preference among likely Democratic primary voters in the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary according to the latest New Hampshire Poll. In ballot preference, Dean continues to lead with 45%.

Senator John Kerry has regained sole possession of second place in ballot preference with 20% of the vote. Wesley Clark, suffering from confusing and poorly-rated television advertising, and Joe Lieberman are now in a battle for a distant third place showing. Lieberman's attacks on Dean have not reduced Dean's favorability or ballot preference and while Dean's unfavorable rating has increased 12 percentage points since the last survey, Lieberman's unfavorable rating remains at 40%.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. This sample includes 426 Democrats (71%) and 174 undeclared voters (29%). The interviews were conducted December 15 through 17, 2003. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Ballot Preference - July 2003 through December 17, 2003
Likely Democratic
primary voters
Dec 17 2003 Dec 3
2003
Nov 20
2003
Nov 5
2003
Oct
2003
Sep
2003
Aug
2003
July
2003
Carol Moseley Braun 0%0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Wesley Clark 8%11% 7% 4% 5% 2% 1% 2%
Howard Dean 45%45% 38% 38% 29%31% 28% 19%
John Edwards 2%3% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Dick Gephardt 3%5% 4% 3% 6% 8% 10% 10%
John Kerry 20%13% 17% 24% 19%21% 21% 25%
Dennis Kucinich 1%2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1%
Joe Lieberman 6%5% 5% 4% 6% 5% 4% 6%
Al Sharpton 0%1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Undecided 15%15% 21% 21% 29%27% 32% 30%

 

Ballot Preference - January 2003 through June 2003
Likely Democratic
primary voters
June
2003
May
2003
April
2003
Mar
2003
Feb
2003
Jan
2003
Carol Moseley Braun 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% NI
Wesley Clark 1% 2% 2% 0% 1% 1%
Howard Dean 18% 19% 19% 22% 16% 15%
John Edwards 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Dick Gephardt 10% 12% 15% 15% 15% 5%
Bob Graham 2% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1%
John Kerry 28% 26% 24% 23% 23% 27%
Dennis Kucinich 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% NI
Joe Lieberman 11% 12% 13% 12% 10% 6%
Al Sharpton 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Undecided 23% 20% 19% 20% 27% 39%
NI = Not included

Dean continues to lead in favorability and the 12 percentage-point increase in his unfavorable rating has not had any impact on his ballot preference.

Dennis Kucinich's dating stunt hurt his favorability more than it helped. Kucinich's favorability has increased 6 percentage points, but his unfavorable rating has increased 11 percentage points as some respondents report they believe that Kucinich's actions were not presidential.

Awareness and
favorability
Aware Favorable Unfavorable Undecided
Carol Moseley Braun:
Dec 18 2003 68% 24% 14% 30%
Dec 3 2003 65% 21% 15% 29%
Nov 20 2003 62% 18% 17% 27%
Nov 5 2003 61% 19% 15% 27%
Oct 2003 59% 17% 10% 32%
Sep 2003 60% 23% 15% 22%
Aug 2003 60% 19% 16% 25%
July 2003 58% 11% 13% 34%
June 2003 57% 17% 17% 23%
May 2003 53% 15% 13% 25%
Apr 2003 53% 15% 17% 21%
Mar 2003 58% 16% 13% 29%
Feb 2003 60% 20% 10% 30%
Wesley Clark:
Dec 18 2003 98% 49% 16% 33%
Dec 3 2003 96% 43% 12% 41%
Nov 20 2003 95% 44% 13% 38%
Nov 5 2003 89% 38% 16% 35%
Oct 2003 90% 34% 10% 46%
Sep 2003 70% 22% 5% 43%
Aug 2003 47% 16% 8% 23%
July 2003 39% 16% 2% 21%
June 2003 46% 13% 2% 31%
May 2003 39% 13% 2% 24%
Apr 2003 33% 14% 4% 15%
Mar 2003 30% 10% 2% 18%
Feb 2003 27% 6% 4% 17%
Jan 2003 14% 2% 0% 12%
Nov 2002 11% 1% 0% 10%
Howard Dean:
Dec 18 2003 100% 72% 19% 9%
Dec 3 2003 99% 69% 7% 23%
Nov 20 2003 100% 71% 11% 18%
Nov 5 2003 100% 67% 8% 25%
Oct 2003 98% 63% 12% 23%
Sep 2003 99% 66% 9% 24%
Aug 2003 98% 63% 7% 28%
July 2003 97% 57% 10% 30%
June 2003 85% 46% 9% 30%
May 2003 81% 45% 11% 25%
Apr 2003 75% 43% 10% 22%
Mar 2003 74% 40% 9% 25%
Feb 2003 75% 33% 12% 29%
Jan 2003 64% 30% 4% 30%
Nov 2002 45% 29% 2% 14%
John Edwards:
Dec 18 2003 95% 45% 16% 34%
Dec 3 2003 94% 42% 18% 34%
Nov 20 2003 92% 36% 17% 39%
Nov 5 2003 93% 33% 18% 42%
Oct 2003 85% 32% 17% 36%
Sep 2003 83% 30% 12% 41%
Aug 2003 86% 25% 16% 45%
July 2003 75% 25% 15% 35%
June 2003 70% 24% 8% 38%
May 2003 65% 21% 7% 37%
Apr 2003 64% 18% 9% 37%
Mar 2003 64% 19% 8% 37%
Feb 2003 58% 17% 5% 36%
Jan 2003 59% 24% 4% 31%
Nov 2002 20% 5% 4% 11%
Dick Gephardt:
Dec 18 2003 100% 53% 21% 26%
Dec 3 2003 100% 51% 22% 27%
Nov 20 2003 100% 50% 20% 30%
Nov 5 2003 100% 52% 22% 26%
Oct 2003 100% 49% 19% 32%
Sep 2003 100% 50% 18% 32%
Aug 2003 100% 47% 16% 37%
July 2003 100% 51% 19% 30%
June 2003 98% 55% 14% 29%
May 2003 97% 50% 16% 31%
Apr 2003 97% 53% 16% 28%
Mar 2003 100% 50% 19% 31%
Feb 2003 98% 49% 21% 28%
Jan 2003 97% 54% 20% 23%
Nov 2002 92% 35% 22% 35%
John Kerry:
Dec 18 2003 98% 51% 23% 24%
Dec 3 2003 97% 57% 18% 22%
Nov 20 2003 99% 61% 19% 19%
Nov 5 2003 96% 66% 12% 18%
Oct 2003 96% 63% 14% 19%
Sep 2003 98% 64% 13% 21%
Aug 2003 98% 61% 5% 32%
July 2003 100% 66% 13% 21%
June 2003 92% 69% 10% 13%
May 2003 92% 65% 11% 16%
Apr 2003 87% 65% 10% 12%
Mar 2003 90% 69% 7% 14%
Feb 2003 87% 61% 8% 18%
Jan 2003 91% 61% 5% 25%
Nov 2002 80% 44% 7% 29%
Dennis Kucinich:
Dec 18 2003 71% 29% 28% 14%
Dec 3 2003 70% 23% 17% 30%
Nov 20 2003 68% 20% 18% 30%
Nov 5 2003 63% 18% 14% 31%
Oct 2003 58% 17% 12% 29%
Sep 2003 60% 12% 18% 30%
Aug 2003 61% 18% 19% 24%
July 2003 56% 11% 16% 29%
June 2003 46% 13% 6% 27%
May 2003 24% 6% 7% 11%
Apr 2003 32% 8% 9% 15%
Mar 2003 21% 6% 9% 6%
Feb 2003 13% 2% 4% 7%
Joe Lieberman:
Dec 18 2003 100% 44% 40% 16%
Dec 3 2003 100% 43% 38% 19%
Nov 20 2003 100% 34% 35% 31%
Nov 5 2003 100% 33% 38% 29%
Oct 2003 100% 39% 31% 30%
Sep 2003 100% 33% 33% 34%
Aug 2003 100% 33% 37% 30%
July 2003 100% 49% 18% 33%
June 2003 100% 46% 20% 34%
May 2003 100% 55% 16% 29%
Apr 2003 100% 56% 19% 25%
Mar 2003 100% 51% 28% 21%
Feb 2003 100% 55% 23% 22%
Jan 2003 100% 61% 19% 20%
Nov 2002 99% 42% 20% 37%
Al Sharpton:
Dec 18 2003 91% 19% 51% 21%
Dec 3 2003 85% 15% 46% 24%
Nov 20 2003 83% 11% 50% 22%
Nov 5 2003 85% 9% 53% 23%
Oct 2003 82% 12% 50% 20%
Sep 2003 84% 12% 59% 13%
Aug 2003 80% 9% 58% 13%
July 2003 79% 11% 41% 27%
June 2003 79% 11% 46% 22%
May 2003 79% 7% 45% 27%
Apr 2003 79% 10% 48% 21%
Mar 2003 71% 8% 43% 20%
Feb 2003 76% 5% 54% 17%
Jan 2003 66% 5% 40% 21%
Nov 2002 63% 1% 33% 29%

Of the 15% of likely Democratic primary voters undecided in their preference for president, 56% have a favorable opinion of Dean, 41% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, and 29% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman.

Of the 45% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they would vote for Dean, 42% have a favorable opinion of Kerry, 53% have a favorable opinion of Lieberman, and 42% have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman.

Of the 44% of likely Democratic primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of Lieberman, 48% say they would vote for Dean. Of the 40% saying they have an unfavorable opinion of Lieberman, 47% say they would vote for Dean. 


About this survey:

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The New Hampshire Poll has been conducting surveys of voters in New Hampshire since 1976.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of registered Democrats and undeclared voters in New Hampshire saying they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary election on January 27. This sample included 426 registered Democrats (71%) and 174 undeclared voters (29%).

Sample Dates: December 15-17, 2003

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Question wording:

I'm going to read a list of names associated with running for president and I'd like you to tell me if you have ever heard of them before.

The first name is (READ FROM BELOW). Have you ever heard of (NAME) before? IF AWARE, ASK: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (NAME)? (NAMES ROTATED)

Carol Moseley Braun
Wesley Clark
Howard Dean
John Edwards
Dick Gephardt
John Kerry
Dennis Kucinich
Joe Lieberman
Al Sharpton

If the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary were being held today between Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Dennis Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, or Al Sharpton, for whom would you vote? (NAMES ROTATED)

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