2004 New Hampshire Democratic Tracking
Methodology
The
results for this tracking survey are based on a minimum of 600 completed telephone interviews
among a statewide random sample of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire. Telephone
households are selected by adding random digits to telephone exchanges selected in a random
probability-proportionate-to-size sample of the state. Respondents in the telephone households
are randomly selected and then screened for voter registration (including intent to register
on or before primary day) and likelihood of voting in the Democratic primary. New Hampshire
is a party-registration state and registered Republicans are excluded from the sample.
During
each day of the tracking, a minimum of 200 interviews are completed among respondents saying
they will definitely vote in the Democratic primary on January 27. The results reported are
based on combining the last three days of interviews for a total sample size of a minimum of
600 likely Democratic primary voters. The composition of the sample by party is reported for
each three-day period. Interviews began on December 26, 2003 and the results reported on December
28, 2003 are based on interviews conducted December 26, 27, and 28, 2003.
After the first day of interviews, the daily sample sizes will vary slightly because of the
impact of callbacks. By the fourth day of the tracking (December 29), the three-day sample should
reflect the geographic composition of the vote in the state and include difficult-to-reach
Democratic primary voters.
The
theoretical margin of error for a sample size of 600 likely Democratic primary voters reported
in the tracking is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split.
The
theoretical margin of error for a sample size of 700 likely
Democratic primary voters reported
in the tracking is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, 95%
of
the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split. The
theoretical margin of error for a sample size of 800 likely
Democratic primary voters reported
in the tracking is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95%
of
the time, on questions where opinion
is evenly split.
*Please note that Carol
Moseley Braun's name was removed as of the tracking beginning
January 18.
*Please note that Dick Gephardt's name was removed
as of the tracking beginning
January 20.
Question
wording:
If
the New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Preference Primary
were being held today between
*Carol Moseley Braun, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards,
*Dick Gephardt, John Kerry, Dennis
Kucinich, Joe Lieberman, and Al Sharpton, for whom would you
vote? (NAMES ARE ROTATED)
Return
to Tracking Results
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